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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Man City

U S S T T

2–0

Full-time

Watford

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

73%

60%

Both score Ø 74%

80%

67%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Watford 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	16	13	1	2	+23	40
2	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+20	34
4	Man City	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Tottenham	15	7	6	2	+13	27
6	Man United	15	6	6	3	+4	24
7	Everton	16	6	5	5	+1	23
8	Bournemouth	16	6	3	7	-3	21
9	Watford	15	6	3	6	-5	21
10	West Brom	15	5	5	5	+2	20
11	Southampton	15	5	5	5	-1	20
12	Stoke	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Burnley	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Leicester	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	West Ham	16	4	4	8	-13	16
16	Crystal Palace	15	4	3	8	-2	15
17	Middlesbrough	16	3	6	7	-6	15
18	Swansea	15	3	3	9	-12	12
19	Hull	15	3	3	9	-18	12
20	Sunderland	16	3	2	11	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Liverpool	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	Tottenham	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	8	4	4	0	+6	16
7	Burnley	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Leicester	8	4	3	1	+7	15
9	Southampton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
10	Man United	8	3	4	1	+5	13
11	Watford	8	4	1	3	+1	13
12	Man City	7	3	3	1	+5	12
13	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	West Ham	8	3	2	3	-6	11
15	Stoke	7	3	1	3	-2	10
16	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	8
17	Hull	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	+1	7
19	Middlesbrough	8	2	1	5	-4	7
20	Sunderland	8	2	1	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+6	19
2	Man City	8	6	0	2	+8	18
3	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Liverpool	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Man United	7	3	2	2	-1	11
6	Tottenham	8	2	4	2	+3	10
7	West Brom	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Stoke	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Middlesbrough	8	1	5	2	-2	8
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
12	Everton	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	West Ham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
15	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-9	5
16	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-9	4
17	Sunderland	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Hull	7	1	1	5	-12	4
19	Leicester	8	0	1	7	-13	1
20	Burnley	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.