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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Man City

U S S S S

0–0

Full-time

Stoke

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 49%

65%

33%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

69%

37%

Both score Ø 57%

62%

52%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

65% Possession 35%

12 Shots 5

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Stoke 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	27	21	3	3	+37	66
2	Tottenham	27	16	8	3	+33	56
3	Man City	26	17	4	5	+24	55
4	Liverpool	27	15	7	5	+24	52
5	Arsenal	26	15	5	6	+24	50
6	Man United	26	13	10	3	+17	49
7	Everton	27	12	8	7	+14	44
8	West Brom	27	11	7	9	+2	40
9	Stoke	27	9	8	10	-8	35
10	Southampton	26	9	6	11	-2	33
11	West Ham	27	9	6	12	-10	33
12	Burnley	27	9	4	14	-10	31
13	Watford	27	8	7	12	-14	31
14	Bournemouth	27	7	6	14	-15	27
15	Leicester	27	7	6	14	-15	27
16	Swansea	27	8	3	16	-24	27
17	Crystal Palace	27	7	4	16	-11	25
18	Middlesbrough	27	4	10	13	-11	22
19	Hull	27	5	6	16	-29	21
20	Sunderland	27	5	4	18	-26	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Chelsea	13	12	0	1	+28	36
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+22	30
4	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
5	Burnley	14	9	2	3	+10	29
6	Everton	13	8	4	1	+17	28
7	West Brom	14	8	2	4	+7	26
8	Man City	12	7	4	1	+10	25
9	Man United	14	6	7	1	+10	25
10	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+4	24
11	Stoke	14	6	5	3	+3	23
12	Watford	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+0	18
14	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
15	West Ham	14	5	3	6	-9	18
16	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-9	17
17	Hull	13	4	4	5	-5	16
18	Middlesbrough	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Sunderland	14	3	3	8	-12	12
20	Crystal Palace	13	3	1	9	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	10	0	4	+14	30
2	Chelsea	14	9	3	2	+9	30
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Arsenal	13	6	3	4	+11	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	14	4	4	6	-3	16
8	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	Southampton	14	4	3	7	-2	15
10	Crystal Palace	14	4	3	7	-5	15
11	West Brom	13	3	5	5	-5	14
12	Stoke	13	3	3	7	-11	12
13	Watford	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Swansea	13	3	1	9	-15	10
15	Middlesbrough	14	1	6	7	-8	9
16	Bournemouth	14	2	3	9	-15	9
17	Sunderland	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Hull	14	1	2	11	-24	5
19	Leicester	13	0	3	10	-19	3
20	Burnley	13	0	2	11	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.