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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Stoke

U U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,3

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 23%

31%

15%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

38%

35%

Both score Ø 48%

54%

42%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

13 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 10. · Middlesbrough 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	26	20	3	3	+36	63
2	Tottenham	26	15	8	3	+32	53
3	Man City	25	16	4	5	+22	52
4	Arsenal	25	15	5	5	+26	50
5	Liverpool	26	14	7	5	+22	49
6	Man United	26	13	10	3	+17	49
7	Everton	26	12	8	6	+15	44
8	West Brom	26	11	7	8	+4	40
9	West Ham	26	9	6	11	-9	33
10	Stoke	26	8	8	10	-10	32
11	Burnley	26	9	4	13	-9	31
12	Watford	26	8	7	11	-13	31
13	Southampton	25	8	6	11	-3	30
14	Bournemouth	27	7	6	14	-15	27
15	Leicester	26	6	6	14	-17	24
16	Swansea	26	7	3	16	-25	24
17	Middlesbrough	26	4	10	12	-9	22
18	Crystal Palace	26	6	4	16	-13	22
19	Hull	26	5	6	15	-27	21
20	Sunderland	26	5	4	17	-24	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	13	12	0	1	+28	36
2	Tottenham	13	11	2	0	+25	35
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
4	Burnley	14	9	2	3	+10	29
5	Everton	13	8	4	1	+17	28
6	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+20	27
7	West Brom	13	8	2	3	+9	26
8	Man City	12	7	4	1	+10	25
9	Man United	14	6	7	1	+10	25
10	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+2	21
11	Stoke	13	5	5	3	+1	20
12	Watford	13	5	4	4	-1	19
13	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+0	18
14	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-8	18
16	Hull	13	4	4	5	-5	16
17	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-10	14
18	Middlesbrough	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Sunderland	13	3	3	7	-10	12
20	Crystal Palace	13	3	1	9	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	0	4	+12	27
2	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+8	27
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+2	22
5	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+13	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
8	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-1	15
9	West Brom	13	3	5	5	-5	14
10	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-3	12
11	Crystal Palace	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Stoke	13	3	3	7	-11	12
13	Watford	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Swansea	13	3	1	9	-15	10
15	Middlesbrough	13	1	6	6	-6	9
16	Bournemouth	14	2	3	9	-15	9
17	Sunderland	13	2	1	10	-14	7
18	Hull	13	1	2	10	-22	5
19	Leicester	13	0	3	10	-19	3
20	Burnley	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.