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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Arsenal

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Leicester

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,8

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

75%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

63%

75%

Both score Ø 69%

63%

75%

Average goals

3,6

3,3

Scored

2,4

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Leicester 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	2	0	+23	23
2	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+13	23
3	Chelsea	9	6	3	0	+13	21
4	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+9	21
5	Arsenal	8	6	0	2	+9	18
6	Bournemouth	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Watford	9	5	1	3	+1	16
8	Everton	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Wolves	9	4	3	2	+1	15
10	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Leicester	8	4	0	4	+2	12
12	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	Burnley	9	2	2	5	-7	8
14	West Ham	9	2	1	6	-6	7
15	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-6	7
16	Southampton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	Cardiff	9	1	2	6	-11	5
18	Fulham	9	1	2	6	-14	5
19	Huddersfield	9	0	3	6	-14	3
20	Newcastle	9	0	2	7	-8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+16	15
2	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Everton	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Watford	5	3	0	2	-1	9
8	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Man United	4	2	1	1	-1	7
11	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+2	6
12	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
13	Burnley	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Newcastle	5	0	0	5	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+7	15
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+5	13
3	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+7	10
4	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Man City	4	2	2	0	+7	8
6	Watford	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Man United	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Bournemouth	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-7	4
16	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Huddersfield	4	0	2	2	-7	2
19	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.