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Premier League
Referee: Lee Mason
Man United
U S T S S
4–1
Full-time
Bournemouth
S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Bournemouth
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,5
3,3
Scored
2,8
0,8
Conceded
1,7
2,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,7
This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 45%
47%
42%
Points per game
1,7
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 79%
84%
74%
Both score Ø 66%
84%
47%
Average goals
3,6
3,2
Scored
1,9
1,4
Conceded
1,6
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

64% Possession 36%
11 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 5
6 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man United 6. · Bournemouth 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 20 17 3 0 +40 54
2 Man City 20 15 2 3 +38 47
3 Tottenham 20 15 0 5 +22 45
4 Chelsea 20 13 4 3 +22 43
5 Arsenal 20 11 5 4 +12 38
6 Man United 19 9 5 5 +6 32
7 Wolves 20 8 5 7 +0 29
8 Leicester 20 8 4 8 +1 28
9 Watford 20 8 4 8 -1 28
10 Everton 20 7 6 7 +1 27
11 West Ham 20 8 3 9 -3 27
12 Bournemouth 19 8 2 9 -6 26
13 Brighton 20 7 4 9 -5 25
14 Crystal Palace 20 5 4 11 -9 19
15 Newcastle 20 4 6 10 -12 18
16 Cardiff 20 5 3 12 -19 18
17 Southampton 20 3 6 11 -17 15
18 Burnley 20 4 3 13 -22 15
19 Fulham 20 3 5 12 -25 14
20 Huddersfield 20 2 4 14 -23 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man United Bournemouth
1–0 P. Pogba
M. Rashford
5′
2–0 P. Pogba
Ander Herrera
33′
Ashley Young 🟨
36′
3–0 M. Rashford
A. Martial
45′
Half-time 3–1
47′
N. Aké 3–1
D. Brooks
Ander Herrera 🟨
51′
66′
🔁 L. Mousset
↦ D. Brooks
66′
🔁 R. Fraser
↦ C. Wilson
R. Lukaku 🔁
↦ M. Rashford
70′
4–1 R. Lukaku
P. Pogba
72′
Andreas Pereira 🔁
↦ Ander Herrera
76′
Eric Bailly 🟥
79′
P. Jones 🔁
↦ A. Martial
82′
82′
🔁 T. Mings
↦ N. Aké
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
18 A. Young D
2 V. Lindelöf D
23 L. Shaw D
3 E. Bailly D
31 N. Matić M
21 Ander Herrera M
6 P. Pogba M
14 J. Lingard M
11 A. Martial F
10 M. Rashford F
Bench (7)
9 R. Lukaku
15 Andreas Pereira
4 P. Jones
8 Mata
22 S. Romero
27 M. Fellaini
36 M. Darmian

Coach: O. Solskjær

Bournemouth

3-5-2
27 A. Begović G
11 C. Daniels D
3 S. Cook D
5 N. Aké D
21 Diego Rico D
6 A. Surman M
19 J. Stanislas M
10 J. Ibe M
20 D. Brooks M
13 C. Wilson F
17 J. King F
Bench (7)
9 L. Mousset
24 R. Fraser
26 T. Mings
1 A. Boruc
8 J. Lerma
18 J. Defoe
25 J. Simpson

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Lee Mason · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.