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Premier League

Referee: Lee Probert

Man United

S T U U U

4–1

Full-time

Fulham

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

40%

13%

Points per game

1,5

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 67%

80%

53%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,7

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man United 8. · Fulham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+28	42
2	Man City	15	13	2	0	+38	41
3	Tottenham	15	11	0	4	+12	33
4	Chelsea	15	9	4	2	+18	31
5	Arsenal	15	9	4	2	+14	31
6	Everton	15	6	5	4	+4	23
7	Bournemouth	16	7	2	7	-1	23
8	Man United	15	6	5	4	-1	23
9	Leicester	15	6	4	5	+3	22
10	Brighton	15	6	3	6	-2	21
11	Watford	15	6	2	7	-3	20
12	Wolves	15	5	4	6	-3	19
13	West Ham	15	5	3	7	-3	18
14	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Crystal Palace	15	3	3	9	-9	12
16	Cardiff	15	3	2	10	-16	11
17	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-16	10
18	Southampton	15	1	6	8	-16	9
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	9
20	Fulham	15	2	3	10	-21	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	8	0	0	+25	24
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
3	Chelsea	8	5	3	0	+10	18
4	Arsenal	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Everton	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
8	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+5	12
9	Man United	7	3	3	1	+0	12
10	Watford	8	4	0	4	-2	12
11	Leicester	7	3	2	2	+4	11
12	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Cardiff	8	3	1	4	-4	10
15	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	0	6	-7	6
17	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
18	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5
20	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+14	23
2	Tottenham	9	7	0	2	+7	21
3	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
9	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Newcastle	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	-5	7
14	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Huddersfield	7	1	2	4	-9	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	8	0	1	7	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.