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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Southampton

T T S S T

1–3

Full-time

Man City

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

16%

74%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

63%

68%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

53%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

1,1

2,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

23% Possession 77%

5 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 17. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	20	17	3	0	+40	54
2	Tottenham	20	15	0	5	+22	45
3	Man City	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Chelsea	20	13	4	3	+22	43
5	Arsenal	20	11	5	4	+12	38
6	Man United	19	9	5	5	+6	32
7	Wolves	20	8	5	7	+0	29
8	Leicester	20	8	4	8	+1	28
9	Watford	20	8	4	8	-1	28
10	Everton	20	7	6	7	+1	27
11	West Ham	19	8	3	8	-1	27
12	Bournemouth	19	8	2	9	-6	26
13	Brighton	20	7	4	9	-5	25
14	Crystal Palace	20	5	4	11	-9	19
15	Newcastle	20	4	6	10	-12	18
16	Cardiff	20	5	3	12	-19	18
17	Southampton	19	3	6	10	-15	15
18	Fulham	20	3	5	12	-25	14
19	Burnley	19	3	3	13	-24	12
20	Huddersfield	20	2	4	14	-23	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	Man City	10	9	0	1	+26	27
3	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	3	1	+11	21
5	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
6	Man United	9	5	3	1	+5	18
7	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+4	18
8	Everton	10	5	3	2	+3	18
9	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
11	Leicester	10	4	2	4	+2	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	West Ham	10	4	1	5	-2	13
14	Cardiff	10	4	1	5	-7	13
15	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
16	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-4	9
17	Southampton	9	1	5	3	-4	8
18	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-8	7
19	Burnley	9	2	1	6	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	0	2	+13	27
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	9	5	2	2	+10	17
5	Arsenal	10	4	3	3	+1	15
6	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Man United	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-1	14
10	Watford	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
12	Crystal Palace	10	3	1	6	-5	10
13	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
14	Bournemouth	9	3	0	6	-8	9
15	Brighton	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Southampton	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
18	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-13	5
19	Burnley	10	1	2	7	-14	5
20	Fulham	10	0	2	8	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.