Gamealyst.com

← Match Finder

Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Derby

U U

1–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

Team trends

Derby Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

1,5

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

1,5

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

Unlock with Pro

Already have an account? Log in

The table before the match Derby 16. · Middlesbrough 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-3	1
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Bristol City	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Derby Middlesbrough

16′

⚽ Kike 0–1

23′

🟨 George Friend

George Thorne 🟨

37′

R. Shotton 🔁

↦ J. Hanson

39′

J. Russell 🔁

↦ J. Hendrick

43′

44′

🟨 Diego Fabbrini

Half-time 0–1

D. Bent 🔁

↦ A. Weimann

72′

74′

🔁 A. Reach

↦ D. Fabbrini

77′

🔁 C. Stuani

↦ Kike

1–1 J. Russell ⚽

G. Thorne

88′

89′

🔁 A. Forshaw

↦ S. Downing

Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Derby

17 S. Carson G

37 S. Warnock M

12 C. Baird D

14 J. Shackell D

6 R. Keogh D

26 J. Hanson M

34 G. Thorne M

23 T. Ince M

8 J. Hendrick F

9 C. Martin F

24 A. Weimann M

Bench (7)

32 R. Shotton

11 J. Russell

10 D. Bent

1 L. Grant

3 C. Forsyth

7 S. Dawkins

16 A. Pearce

Middlesbrough

1 D. Konstantopoulos G

3 G. Friend D

4 Daniel Ayala D

B. Gibson D

26 T. Kalas D

19 S. Downing F

7 G. Leadbitter M

27 A. Adomah M

8 A. Clayton M

9 Kike F

31 D. Fabbrini F

Bench (7)

20 A. Reach

18 C. Stuani

34 A. Forshaw

35 D. Nugent

13 Tomás

16 J. Stephens

24 Nsue

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

U ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

15. Aug CH 11 years ago

8. Aug CH 11 years ago

Referee

Steve Martin · 46 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

2,5 / match

Below average

⚽ Free kicks

15,9 / match

Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Derby

Middlesbrough

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee