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Championship

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Milton Keynes Dons

S T

1–0

Full-time

Bolton

U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milton Keynes Dons Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,5

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Milton Keynes Dons 10. · Bolton 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Milton Keynes Dons	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Burnley	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	1
22	Bolton	2	0	1	1	-3	1
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Bristol City	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Huddersfield	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milton Keynes Dons	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Charlton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Bolton	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milton Keynes Dons Bolton

39′

🟨 Josh Vela

Samir Carruthers 🟨

42′

Half-time 0–0

D. Powell 🔁

↦ C. Benavente

56′

1–0 D. Powell ⚽

S. Carruthers

60′

S. Gallagher 🔁

↦ S. Church

68′

🔁 E. Heskey

↦ L. Feeney

75′

🟨 Lawrie Wilson

80′

🔁 S. Dobbie

↦ D. Moxey

M. Upson 🔁

↦ D. Bowditch

82′

87′

🟨 Stephen Dobbie

Darren Potter 🟨

90′

91′

🔁 T. Walker

↦ J. Vela

Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons

1 David Martin

5 K. McFadzean D

3 D. Lewington D

12 J. Spence D

8 D. Potter M

6 A. Kay D

7 C. Baker M

23 C. Benavente M

14 S. Carruthers M

9 D. Bowditch M

11 S. Church F

Bench (7)

17 D. Powell

13 S. Gallagher

4 M. Upson

18 Sergio Aguza

2 L. Hodson

21 D. Jennings

22 C. Cropper

Bolton

B. Amos G

4 D. Dervite D

3 D. Moxey D

2 P. Gouano D

16 M. Davies M

18 N. Danns M

7 L. Feeney M

25 L. Wilson D

6 J. Vela M

14 G. Madine F

10 Z. Clough F

Bench (7)

19 E. Heskey

23 S. Dobbie

42 T. Walker

8 J. Spearing

27 F. Twardzik

34 R. Fitzsimons

45 R. Holding

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

15. Aug CH 11 years ago

8. Aug CH 11 years ago

Referee

Stuart Attwell · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards

3,6 / match

Average

⚽ Free kicks

18,0 / match

Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

Team trends

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons

Bolton

Odds comparison

Recent matches

Referee