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Championship

Referee: Geoff Eltringham

Bolton

U T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bolton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

55%

Points per game

0,7

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

45%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bolton 24. · Birmingham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	8	4	0	+8	28
2	Reading	12	6	4	2	+10	22
3	Hull	12	6	4	2	+9	22
4	Burnley	12	6	4	2	+5	22
5	Middlesbrough	12	6	3	3	+9	21
6	Birmingham	11	6	3	2	+7	21
7	Derby	11	5	5	1	+7	20
8	Cardiff	12	5	5	2	+4	20
9	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
10	QPR	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	-5	16
12	Wolves	11	4	3	4	+2	15
13	Huddersfield	12	3	5	4	-2	14
14	Fulham	11	3	4	4	+1	13
15	Nott'm Forest	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Blackburn	11	2	5	4	-1	11
17	Preston	12	2	5	5	-3	11
18	Milton Keynes Dons	12	3	2	7	-4	11
19	Leeds	11	2	5	4	-5	11
20	Brentford	11	3	2	6	-6	11
21	Bristol City	12	2	4	6	-7	10
22	Charlton	12	2	4	6	-7	10
23	Rotherham	12	2	3	7	-8	9
24	Bolton	11	1	5	5	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	6	5	1	0	+5	16
2	Hull	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Burnley	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Cardiff	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Reading	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Sheffield Weds	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Huddersfield	6	2	3	1	+4	9
10	Derby	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	QPR	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+2	9
13	Blackburn	5	2	2	1	+4	8
14	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	8
15	Charlton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
16	Fulham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
17	Bolton	5	1	4	0	+1	7
18	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-3	7
19	Milton Keynes Dons	6	2	0	4	-2	6
20	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-2	5
21	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-3	5
22	Rotherham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
23	Preston	6	0	4	2	-2	4
24	Leeds	6	0	3	3	-4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	12
2	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Reading	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Derby	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+0	9
6	Hull	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Leeds	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Cardiff	6	1	4	1	+0	7
11	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Preston	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	QPR	6	2	1	3	-5	7
14	Ipswich	6	2	1	3	-7	7
15	Fulham	6	1	3	2	+0	6
16	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-2	6
17	Milton Keynes Dons	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-6	5
20	Rotherham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
21	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-3	4
22	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	3
23	Charlton	6	0	2	4	-6	2
24	Bolton	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.