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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Birmingham

S T U U T

1–2

Full-time

Brighton

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,5

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,7

This season — Championship · 38/37 matches

Win Ø 45%

39%

51%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

32%

54%

Both score Ø 46%

37%

54%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 6

4 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 9. · Brighton 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	39	21	13	5	+30	76
2	Middlesbrough	38	22	7	9	+26	73
3	Brighton	37	19	13	5	+17	70
4	Hull	36	20	8	8	+33	68
5	Sheffield Weds	36	17	11	8	+21	62
6	Cardiff	39	16	14	9	+9	62
7	Derby	38	16	13	9	+13	61
8	Ipswich	39	16	11	12	+2	59
9	Birmingham	38	15	11	12	+5	56
10	Preston	39	14	14	11	+2	56
11	QPR	39	12	15	12	+3	51
12	Wolves	39	12	13	14	-5	49
13	Reading	38	12	12	14	+0	48
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-9	47
15	Blackburn	39	11	13	15	+0	46
16	Nott'm Forest	39	11	13	15	-5	46
17	Brentford	38	13	7	18	-8	46
18	Huddersfield	39	12	9	18	-2	45
19	Bristol City	39	11	10	18	-22	43
20	Rotherham	39	12	6	21	-17	42
21	Fulham	39	9	14	16	-6	41
22	Milton Keynes Dons	39	9	10	20	-20	37
23	Charlton	39	8	11	20	-34	35
24	Bolton	39	4	14	21	-33	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	19	13	4	2	+22	43
2	Middlesbrough	18	13	3	2	+21	42
3	Brighton	19	13	3	3	+13	42
4	Hull	17	12	5	0	+30	41
5	Cardiff	20	11	7	2	+12	40
6	Sheffield Weds	18	11	5	2	+21	38
7	Derby	19	10	6	3	+15	36
8	QPR	20	8	8	4	+10	32
9	Reading	19	7	9	3	+8	30
10	Ipswich	19	8	6	5	+5	30
11	Birmingham	18	9	3	6	+3	30
12	Preston	19	7	8	4	+2	29
13	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+6	28
14	Rotherham	20	8	4	8	-2	28
15	Nott'm Forest	20	7	6	7	+0	27
16	Wolves	20	6	8	6	-1	26
17	Huddersfield	20	7	4	9	+4	25
18	Brentford	19	7	3	9	-3	24
19	Milton Keynes Dons	19	7	3	9	-7	24
20	Fulham	20	6	5	9	+0	23
21	Charlton	20	5	8	7	-6	23
22	Bolton	20	4	10	6	-2	22
23	Leeds	19	5	7	7	-6	22
24	Bristol City	19	5	6	8	-6	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	8	9	3	+8	33
2	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+5	31
3	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	-3	29
4	Brighton	18	6	10	2	+4	28
5	Hull	19	8	3	8	+3	27
6	Preston	20	7	6	7	+0	27
7	Birmingham	20	6	8	6	+2	26
8	Derby	19	6	7	6	-2	25
9	Leeds	19	6	7	6	-3	25
10	Sheffield Weds	18	6	6	6	+0	24
11	Wolves	19	6	5	8	-4	23
12	Cardiff	19	5	7	7	-3	22
13	Brentford	19	6	4	9	-5	22
14	Bristol City	20	6	4	10	-16	22
15	Huddersfield	19	5	5	9	-6	20
16	Nott'm Forest	19	4	7	8	-5	19
17	QPR	19	4	7	8	-7	19
18	Fulham	19	3	9	7	-6	18
19	Blackburn	19	4	6	9	-6	18
20	Reading	19	5	3	11	-8	18
21	Rotherham	19	4	2	13	-15	14
22	Milton Keynes Dons	20	2	7	11	-13	13
23	Charlton	19	3	3	13	-28	12
24	Bolton	19	0	4	15	-31	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.