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Championship

Referee: Steve Martin

Nott'm Forest

T T U S S

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Championship · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 53%

33%

72%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

72%

44%

Both score Ø 59%

78%

39%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

17 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 17. · Newcastle 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	18	13	1	4	+22	40
2	Brighton	18	11	5	2	+17	38
3	Reading	18	10	4	4	+6	34
4	Birmingham	18	8	7	3	+5	31
5	Leeds	18	9	2	7	+1	29
6	Huddersfield	17	9	2	6	-2	29
7	Norwich	18	8	3	7	-1	27
8	Derby	18	7	5	6	+3	26
9	Fulham	18	6	7	5	+4	25
10	Aston Villa	18	5	10	3	+3	25
11	Preston	18	7	4	7	+2	25
12	Sheffield Weds	17	7	4	6	-1	25
13	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Ipswich	18	6	6	6	+0	24
15	QPR	19	6	5	8	-8	23
16	Brentford	18	6	4	8	+3	22
17	Nott'm Forest	18	6	4	8	+0	22
18	Barnsley	18	6	4	8	+0	22
19	Wolves	19	5	6	8	-3	21
20	Burton Albion	18	4	7	7	-5	19
21	Blackburn	18	5	4	9	-7	19
22	Wigan	18	4	6	8	-4	18
23	Cardiff	18	5	3	10	-12	18
24	Rotherham	18	1	4	13	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Reading	10	6	3	1	+8	21
3	Huddersfield	8	6	1	1	+5	19
4	Newcastle	9	6	0	3	+8	18
5	Birmingham	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Aston Villa	9	4	5	0	+7	17
7	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+5	16
8	Ipswich	10	4	4	2	+5	16
9	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
10	Derby	10	4	3	3	+3	15
11	Sheffield Weds	8	5	0	3	+1	15
12	Brentford	9	4	2	3	+6	14
13	Burton Albion	8	4	2	2	+5	14
14	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+4	14
15	Preston	10	4	2	4	+4	14
16	Leeds	9	4	2	3	+1	14
17	Barnsley	10	3	3	4	-1	12
18	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	QPR	10	3	3	4	-6	12
20	Fulham	9	2	4	3	+0	10
21	Cardiff	9	3	1	5	-5	10
22	Wigan	8	2	3	3	-1	9
23	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-5	8
24	Rotherham	9	1	3	5	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+4	15
3	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Leeds	9	5	0	4	+0	15
5	Wolves	10	3	4	3	+2	13
6	Birmingham	9	3	4	2	-1	13
7	Reading	8	4	1	3	-2	13
8	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
9	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	11
10	QPR	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Norwich	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Barnsley	8	3	1	4	+1	10
13	Sheffield Weds	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	Huddersfield	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Wigan	10	2	3	5	-3	9
16	Bristol City	10	2	2	6	-1	8
17	Brentford	9	2	2	5	-3	8
18	Nott'm Forest	10	2	2	6	-4	8
19	Aston Villa	9	1	5	3	-4	8
20	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-5	8
21	Cardiff	9	2	2	5	-7	8
22	Blackburn	9	2	1	6	-6	7
23	Burton Albion	10	0	5	5	-10	5
24	Rotherham	9	0	1	8	-20	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.