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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Newcastle

S U S S U

2–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 47%

68%

26%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

52%

35%

Both score Ø 49%

42%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 2. · Aston Villa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	32	20	8	4	+28	68
2	Newcastle	31	21	3	7	+35	66
3	Huddersfield	29	19	4	6	+10	61
4	Leeds	33	18	4	11	+11	58
5	Reading	30	17	6	7	+10	57
6	Sheffield Weds	30	15	7	8	+8	52
7	Norwich	33	15	6	12	+11	51
8	Barnsley	33	14	7	12	+4	49
9	Preston	33	13	10	10	+4	49
10	Derby	31	13	8	10	+7	47
11	Fulham	29	12	10	7	+11	46
12	Cardiff	33	13	6	14	-2	45
13	Ipswich	33	10	11	12	-7	41
14	Birmingham	33	10	10	13	-14	40
15	Brentford	31	10	7	14	-1	37
16	QPR	32	10	7	15	-11	37
17	Aston Villa	31	8	12	11	-6	36
18	Nott'm Forest	33	10	6	17	-12	36
19	Wolves	31	9	8	14	-4	35
20	Burton Albion	32	9	7	16	-13	34
21	Bristol City	31	9	5	17	-4	32
22	Wigan	32	7	9	16	-9	30
23	Blackburn	31	7	8	16	-13	29
24	Rotherham	33	4	5	24	-43	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	16	12	3	1	+24	39
2	Norwich	16	11	2	3	+21	35
3	Huddersfield	14	11	2	1	+12	35
4	Leeds	17	11	2	4	+11	35
5	Reading	16	10	4	2	+12	34
6	Newcastle	15	10	1	4	+18	31
7	Sheffield Weds	14	10	1	3	+9	31
8	Preston	17	8	4	5	+7	28
9	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+5	27
10	Derby	16	7	5	4	+7	26
11	Cardiff	17	8	2	7	+3	26
12	Aston Villa	15	6	7	2	+6	25
13	Ipswich	17	6	7	4	+2	25
14	Birmingham	17	7	4	6	-2	25
15	Brentford	15	6	5	4	+9	23
16	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
17	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	+2	23
18	Burton Albion	16	7	2	7	+1	23
19	Barnsley	17	6	5	6	-1	23
20	Blackburn	16	5	5	6	-2	20
21	Rotherham	16	4	4	8	-5	16
22	QPR	16	4	4	8	-9	16
23	Wolves	15	4	3	8	-6	15
24	Wigan	16	3	5	8	-6	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	16	11	2	3	+17	35
2	Brighton	16	8	5	3	+4	29
3	Barnsley	16	8	2	6	+5	26
4	Huddersfield	15	8	2	5	-2	26
5	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+7	23
6	Leeds	16	7	2	7	+0	23
7	Reading	14	7	2	5	-2	23
8	Derby	15	6	3	6	+0	21
9	Sheffield Weds	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	QPR	16	6	3	7	-2	21
11	Preston	16	5	6	5	-3	21
12	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
13	Cardiff	16	5	4	7	-5	19
14	Wigan	16	4	4	8	-3	16
15	Ipswich	16	4	4	8	-9	16
16	Norwich	17	4	4	9	-10	16
17	Birmingham	16	3	6	7	-12	15
18	Brentford	16	4	2	10	-10	14
19	Aston Villa	16	2	5	9	-12	11
20	Burton Albion	16	2	5	9	-14	11
21	Bristol City	16	2	3	11	-6	9
22	Blackburn	15	2	3	10	-11	9
23	Nott'm Forest	17	2	3	12	-17	9
24	Rotherham	17	0	1	16	-38	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.