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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Newcastle

S T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 57%

68%

46%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

54%

29%

Both score Ø 32%

43%

21%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

19 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 2. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	28	18	6	4	+23	60
2	Newcastle	28	19	2	7	+33	59
3	Leeds	29	17	3	9	+13	54
4	Reading	27	16	4	7	+9	52
5	Huddersfield	26	16	4	6	+7	52
6	Derby	28	13	7	8	+9	46
7	Barnsley	29	13	5	11	+4	44
8	Norwich	28	13	4	11	+7	43
9	Sheffield Weds	27	12	7	8	+3	43
10	Preston	29	11	8	10	+1	41
11	Fulham	26	10	10	6	+10	40
12	Birmingham	29	9	10	10	-8	37
13	Brentford	28	10	6	12	+2	36
14	Aston Villa	28	8	12	8	-2	36
15	Cardiff	29	10	6	13	-9	36
16	Wolves	28	9	8	11	-1	35
17	Ipswich	29	9	8	12	-8	35
18	QPR	29	9	7	13	-12	34
19	Nott'm Forest	29	9	6	14	-7	33
20	Bristol City	28	8	4	16	-4	28
21	Burton Albion	29	7	7	15	-12	28
22	Wigan	28	6	7	15	-9	25
23	Blackburn	28	6	7	15	-13	25
24	Rotherham	29	4	4	21	-36	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	14	11	2	1	+21	35
2	Leeds	15	10	2	3	+12	32
3	Huddersfield	13	10	2	1	+11	32
4	Norwich	14	10	1	3	+17	31
5	Reading	14	9	3	2	+11	30
6	Newcastle	14	9	1	4	+17	28
7	Aston Villa	13	6	7	0	+9	25
8	Derby	14	7	4	3	+8	25
9	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
10	Nott'm Forest	14	7	3	4	+5	24
11	Ipswich	15	6	5	4	+2	23
12	Cardiff	15	7	2	6	-1	23
13	Brentford	14	6	4	4	+9	22
14	Preston	15	6	4	5	+4	22
15	Barnsley	15	6	4	5	+1	22
16	Birmingham	15	6	4	5	+0	22
17	Bristol City	14	6	2	6	+1	20
18	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
19	Burton Albion	14	5	2	7	-1	17
20	Blackburn	15	4	5	6	-3	17
21	QPR	15	4	4	7	-8	16
22	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
23	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Wigan	14	3	3	8	-6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	14	7	4	3	+2	25
3	Fulham	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Barnsley	14	7	1	6	+3	22
5	Leeds	14	7	1	6	+1	22
6	Reading	13	7	1	5	-2	22
7	Derby	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Wolves	15	5	5	5	+3	20
9	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
10	Preston	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Sheffield Weds	15	4	6	5	-2	18
12	QPR	14	5	3	6	-4	18
13	Birmingham	14	3	6	5	-8	15
14	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-7	14
15	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
16	Cardiff	14	3	4	7	-8	13
17	Norwich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Ipswich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
19	Burton Albion	15	2	5	8	-11	11
20	Aston Villa	15	2	5	8	-11	11
21	Nott'm Forest	15	2	3	10	-12	9
22	Bristol City	14	2	2	10	-5	8
23	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Rotherham	15	0	1	14	-32	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.