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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Newcastle

S T T S S

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 16%

25%

Points per game

1,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,1

0,8

Conceded

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 17. · Aston Villa 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	5	1	+13	38
2	Arsenal	16	10	3	3	+16	33
3	Man City	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Tottenham	17	7	8	2	+14	29
5	Man United	17	8	5	4	+8	29
6	Crystal Palace	17	9	2	6	+7	29
7	Watford	16	7	4	5	+2	25
8	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
9	Liverpool	16	6	6	4	+1	24
10	Everton	17	5	8	4	+7	23
11	Stoke	17	6	5	6	-2	23
12	Southampton	17	5	6	6	+0	21
13	West Brom	17	5	5	7	-6	20
14	Bournemouth	17	5	4	8	-10	19
15	Chelsea	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-9	17
17	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-13	16
18	Swansea	16	3	5	8	-9	14
19	Sunderland	17	3	3	11	-15	12
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Leicester	8	5	2	1	+3	17
3	Tottenham	9	4	4	1	+8	16
4	Man United	8	4	3	1	+7	15
5	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
6	Crystal Palace	9	4	1	4	+3	13
7	Chelsea	9	4	1	4	+1	13
8	Everton	9	3	3	3	+4	12
9	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	-1	12
10	Southampton	9	3	2	4	+0	11
11	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
12	West Ham	8	2	4	2	+1	10
13	Stoke	8	3	1	4	-1	10
14	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+1	9
15	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Swansea	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	9	2	2	5	-5	8
20	Aston Villa	8	0	2	6	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	9	6	3	0	+10	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+10	19
3	Crystal Palace	8	5	1	2	+4	16
4	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Watford	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Man United	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Tottenham	8	3	4	1	+6	13
8	Stoke	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Liverpool	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	West Brom	8	3	3	2	-1	12
11	Everton	8	2	5	1	+3	11
12	Man City	7	3	2	2	+1	11
13	Southampton	8	2	4	2	+0	10
14	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Newcastle	8	2	1	5	-14	7
17	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-5	5
18	Chelsea	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Aston Villa	8	1	1	6	-10	4
20	Sunderland	9	1	1	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.