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Championship

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Burton Albion

U T U S U

0–4

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burton Albion Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Championship · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 30%

22%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

44%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

44%

63%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burton Albion 19. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	9	6	2	1	+12	20
2	Wolves	9	6	2	1	+6	20
3	Cardiff	9	6	2	1	+6	20
4	Sheffield United	9	6	0	3	+4	18
5	Preston	9	4	4	1	+6	16
6	Ipswich	8	5	0	3	+3	15
7	Bristol City	9	3	5	1	+5	14
8	Middlesbrough	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Sheffield Weds	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Aston Villa	8	3	3	2	+2	12
11	QPR	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	Nott'm Forest	9	4	0	5	-3	12
13	Norwich	9	3	3	3	-4	12
14	Fulham	9	2	5	2	+1	11
15	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Millwall	9	2	4	3	+2	10
17	Hull	9	2	3	4	-1	9
18	Reading	8	2	3	3	-1	9
19	Burton Albion	9	2	3	4	-9	9
20	Brentford	9	1	4	4	-2	7
21	Barnsley	8	2	1	5	-4	7
22	Sunderland	9	1	3	5	-6	6
23	Birmingham	9	1	2	6	-8	5
24	Bolton	9	0	2	7	-15	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+8	11
2	Preston	5	3	2	0	+5	11
3	QPR	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Cardiff	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+4	10
6	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Sheffield United	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Ipswich	4	3	0	1	+3	9
9	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+5	8
10	Aston Villa	4	2	2	0	+3	8
11	Sheffield Weds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Hull	4	2	1	1	+6	7
14	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+4	7
15	Derby	4	2	1	1	+4	7
16	Burton Albion	4	2	1	1	+1	7
17	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+0	6
18	Fulham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
19	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
20	Reading	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-3	4
22	Brentford	4	0	3	1	-1	3
23	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Bolton	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Cardiff	5	3	1	1	+0	10
3	Leeds	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Bristol City	5	1	3	1	+0	6
7	Nott'm Forest	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Preston	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Aston Villa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
15	Reading	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Derby	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	Bolton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
20	Hull	5	0	2	3	-7	2
21	Burton Albion	5	0	2	3	-10	2
22	QPR	4	0	1	3	-4	1
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Birmingham	5	0	1	4	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.