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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Brentford

U S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 23/21 matches

Win Ø 37%

30%

43%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

61%

48%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 12. · Aston Villa 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	24	17	4	3	+26	55
2	Bristol City	24	13	8	3	+15	47
3	Cardiff	24	14	5	5	+13	47
4	Derby	23	13	5	5	+17	44
5	Leeds	24	13	3	8	+10	42
6	Sheffield United	24	13	2	9	+10	41
7	Middlesbrough	23	11	4	8	+9	37
8	Preston	24	9	10	5	+4	37
9	Ipswich	24	11	3	10	+4	36
10	Aston Villa	21	9	7	5	+8	34
11	Fulham	22	9	7	6	+3	34
12	Brentford	23	7	10	6	+4	31
13	Nott'm Forest	24	10	1	13	-8	31
14	Sheffield Weds	24	7	9	8	+1	30
15	Norwich	24	8	6	10	-6	30
16	Millwall	24	6	9	9	-1	27
17	Reading	24	7	6	11	-3	27
18	QPR	24	6	9	9	-8	27
19	Hull	24	5	8	11	-4	23
20	Barnsley	24	5	7	12	-11	22
21	Burton Albion	24	5	5	14	-26	20
22	Sunderland	24	3	10	11	-14	19
23	Bolton	24	4	7	13	-20	19
24	Birmingham	24	4	5	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Cardiff	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Derby	12	8	1	3	+13	25
4	Sheffield United	12	8	1	3	+11	25
5	Bristol City	12	7	3	2	+8	24
6	Ipswich	12	7	2	3	+10	23
7	Middlesbrough	12	7	2	3	+6	23
8	Leeds	12	6	3	3	+8	21
9	Millwall	12	6	3	3	+7	21
10	Nott'm Forest	12	7	0	5	+1	21
11	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+6	19
13	QPR	12	5	4	3	+2	19
14	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+3	17
15	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	17
16	Brentford	11	3	7	1	+4	16
17	Hull	12	4	3	5	+7	15
18	Norwich	12	3	5	4	-1	14
19	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-4	14
20	Birmingham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
21	Reading	12	3	4	5	-1	13
22	Barnsley	12	3	3	6	-5	12
23	Sunderland	12	1	5	6	-7	8
24	Burton Albion	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	8	2	2	+11	26
2	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+7	23
3	Leeds	12	7	0	5	+2	21
4	Cardiff	12	6	2	4	+0	20
5	Derby	11	5	4	2	+4	19
6	Fulham	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Preston	12	4	5	3	+0	17
8	Sheffield United	12	5	1	6	-1	16
9	Norwich	12	5	1	6	-5	16
10	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+2	15
11	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+0	15
12	Middlesbrough	11	4	2	5	+3	14
13	Reading	12	4	2	6	-2	14
14	Sheffield Weds	12	3	4	5	-2	13
15	Ipswich	12	4	1	7	-6	13
16	Burton Albion	12	3	4	5	-10	13
17	Sunderland	12	2	5	5	-7	11
18	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-6	10
19	Nott'm Forest	12	3	1	8	-9	10
20	QPR	12	1	5	6	-10	8
21	Hull	12	1	5	6	-11	8
22	Millwall	12	0	6	6	-8	6
23	Bolton	12	0	5	7	-16	5
24	Birmingham	12	0	3	9	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.