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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Brentford

U S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

30%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 70%

70%

Average goals

3,1

3,4

Scored

1,6

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

23 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 18. · Aston Villa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	31	17	9	5	+21	60
2	Sheffield United	31	16	7	8	+19	55
3	West Brom	30	15	8	7	+22	53
4	Bristol City	31	15	8	8	+10	53
5	Leeds	29	15	7	7	+11	52
6	Middlesbrough	30	13	12	5	+12	51
7	Derby	28	14	8	6	+12	50
8	Birmingham	32	11	13	8	+9	46
9	Nott'm Forest	32	11	13	8	+8	46
10	Swansea	31	12	8	11	+4	44
11	Hull	32	12	8	12	+3	44
12	Aston Villa	30	10	13	7	+7	43
13	Blackburn	31	11	10	10	-5	43
14	Preston	31	10	10	11	+1	40
15	Sheffield Weds	31	10	10	11	-11	40
16	QPR	31	11	6	14	-8	39
17	Stoke	31	9	11	11	-7	38
18	Brentford	30	9	10	11	+6	37
19	Wigan	31	9	6	16	-14	33
20	Millwall	31	7	10	14	-11	31
21	Rotherham	32	5	13	14	-20	28
22	Reading	31	5	11	15	-12	26
23	Bolton	32	6	8	18	-26	26
24	Ipswich	31	3	9	19	-31	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	10	2	4	+9	32
2	Sheffield United	15	9	3	3	+13	30
3	Derby	14	8	5	1	+10	29
4	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
5	Brentford	15	8	3	4	+13	27
6	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+9	27
7	Blackburn	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Wigan	15	8	3	4	+3	27
9	West Brom	15	7	5	3	+14	26
10	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
11	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+5	26
12	Hull	16	7	4	5	+10	25
13	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+9	25
14	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
15	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
16	Millwall	16	6	6	4	+2	24
17	Stoke	16	7	3	6	+0	24
18	QPR	15	7	2	6	+2	23
19	Preston	15	5	7	3	+7	22
20	Sheffield Weds	15	5	7	3	-1	22
21	Rotherham	16	5	7	4	-3	22
22	Reading	15	4	3	8	-3	15
23	Ipswich	15	2	7	6	-6	13
24	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	7	7	1	+12	28
2	West Brom	15	8	3	4	+8	27
3	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+7	27
4	Bristol City	15	8	3	4	+5	27
5	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
7	Derby	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Hull	16	5	4	7	-7	19
11	Nott'm Forest	16	3	9	4	+1	18
12	Preston	16	5	3	8	-6	18
13	Sheffield Weds	16	5	3	8	-10	18
14	Aston Villa	14	4	5	5	+0	17
15	QPR	16	4	4	8	-10	16
16	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-12	16
17	Stoke	15	2	8	5	-7	14
18	Bolton	16	3	4	9	-15	13
19	Reading	16	1	8	7	-9	11
20	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
21	Millwall	15	1	4	10	-13	7
22	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
23	Rotherham	16	0	6	10	-17	6
24	Ipswich	16	1	2	13	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.