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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Aston Villa

S U U T U

2–1

Full-time

Ipswich

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Ipswich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

This season — Championship · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 22%

33%

11%

Points per game

1,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

63%

36%

Both score Ø 58%

70%

46%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

23 Shots 8

13 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 11

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Ipswich 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	28	15	8	5	+16	53
2	Sheffield United	28	15	5	8	+17	50
3	West Brom	27	14	7	6	+22	49
4	Leeds	26	14	6	6	+12	48
5	Middlesbrough	28	12	11	5	+11	47
6	Derby	26	13	7	6	+10	46
7	Bristol City	28	12	8	8	+6	44
8	Hull	28	11	7	10	+6	40
9	Swansea	28	11	7	10	+5	40
10	Blackburn	28	10	10	8	-4	40
11	Birmingham	28	9	12	7	+7	39
12	Nott'm Forest	28	9	12	7	+7	39
13	QPR	28	11	6	11	-5	39
14	Aston Villa	27	9	11	7	+6	38
15	Stoke	28	9	11	8	-2	38
16	Sheffield Weds	28	9	8	11	-12	35
17	Brentford	28	8	10	10	+4	34
18	Preston	28	8	9	11	-2	33
19	Millwall	28	7	8	13	-10	29
20	Wigan	28	8	5	15	-13	29
21	Rotherham	28	5	10	13	-19	25
22	Reading	28	5	8	15	-12	23
23	Bolton	28	5	7	16	-24	22
24	Ipswich	28	3	9	16	-26	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	9	1	4	+6	28
2	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+11	27
3	Leeds	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	Derby	13	7	5	1	+8	26
5	West Brom	13	7	4	2	+15	25
6	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+10	24
7	Blackburn	14	6	6	2	+5	24
8	Stoke	14	7	3	4	+3	24
9	Wigan	14	7	3	4	+2	24
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	23
11	QPR	14	7	2	5	+3	23
12	Birmingham	14	5	7	2	+8	22
13	Aston Villa	14	5	7	2	+6	22
14	Nott'm Forest	14	6	4	4	+4	22
15	Millwall	14	6	4	4	+2	22
16	Hull	14	6	3	5	+8	21
17	Preston	14	5	6	3	+7	21
18	Swansea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
19	Sheffield Weds	14	5	6	3	-1	21
20	Rotherham	14	5	6	3	-2	21
21	Bristol City	14	5	5	4	+2	20
22	Reading	14	4	2	8	-3	14
23	Ipswich	14	2	7	5	-5	13
24	Bolton	14	3	3	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	6	7	1	+10	25
2	West Brom	14	7	3	4	+7	24
3	Middlesbrough	14	6	6	2	+6	24
4	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+4	24
5	Sheffield United	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Leeds	13	6	3	4	+1	21
7	Derby	13	6	2	5	+2	20
8	Swansea	14	5	4	5	+2	19
9	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Nott'm Forest	14	3	8	3	+3	17
11	Birmingham	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Aston Villa	13	4	4	5	+0	16
13	QPR	14	4	4	6	-8	16
14	Blackburn	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Stoke	14	2	8	4	-5	14
16	Sheffield Weds	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Preston	14	3	3	8	-9	12
18	Brentford	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Bolton	14	2	4	8	-14	10
20	Reading	14	1	6	7	-9	9
21	Millwall	14	1	4	9	-12	7
22	Wigan	14	1	2	11	-15	5
23	Ipswich	14	1	2	11	-21	5
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.