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Championship

Referee: Kevin Friend

Swansea

S U S U T

1–0

Full-time

Millwall

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 31%

37%

24%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

53%

48%

Both score Ø 56%

53%

59%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

15 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 13. · Millwall 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	30	16	9	5	+18	57
2	Sheffield United	31	16	7	8	+19	55
3	Leeds	29	15	7	7	+11	52
4	Middlesbrough	30	13	12	5	+12	51
5	West Brom	28	14	7	7	+21	49
6	Derby	27	13	8	6	+10	47
7	Bristol City	29	13	8	8	+8	47
8	Birmingham	30	10	13	7	+9	43
9	Aston Villa	30	10	13	7	+7	43
10	Hull	30	12	7	11	+5	43
11	Blackburn	30	11	10	9	-4	43
12	Nott'm Forest	30	10	12	8	+7	42
13	Swansea	30	11	8	11	+3	41
14	QPR	29	11	6	12	-6	39
15	Stoke	30	9	11	10	-6	38
16	Sheffield Weds	29	10	8	11	-11	38
17	Brentford	29	9	10	10	+7	37
18	Preston	30	9	10	11	+0	37
19	Wigan	30	9	5	16	-14	32
20	Millwall	29	7	9	13	-10	30
21	Rotherham	30	5	11	14	-20	26
22	Reading	30	5	10	15	-12	25
23	Bolton	30	5	8	17	-26	23
24	Ipswich	30	3	9	18	-28	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	15	9	3	3	+13	30
2	Norwich	15	9	2	4	+6	29
3	Brentford	15	8	3	4	+13	27
4	Leeds	14	8	3	3	+9	27
5	Blackburn	15	7	6	2	+8	27
6	Wigan	15	8	3	4	+3	27
7	Derby	13	7	5	1	+8	26
8	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
9	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+14	25
10	Birmingham	15	6	7	2	+10	25
11	Nott'm Forest	15	7	4	4	+6	25
12	Hull	15	7	3	5	+10	24
13	Middlesbrough	15	6	6	3	+5	24
14	Stoke	15	7	3	5	+1	24
15	Bristol City	15	6	5	4	+4	23
16	QPR	14	7	2	5	+3	23
17	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+2	23
18	Preston	15	5	7	3	+7	22
19	Swansea	15	6	4	5	+3	22
20	Sheffield Weds	14	5	6	3	-1	21
21	Rotherham	15	5	6	4	-3	21
22	Reading	15	4	3	8	-3	15
23	Ipswich	15	2	7	6	-6	13
24	Bolton	15	3	4	8	-10	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	7	7	1	+12	28
2	Middlesbrough	15	7	6	2	+7	27
3	Sheffield United	16	7	4	5	+6	25
4	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
5	West Brom	14	7	3	4	+7	24
6	Bristol City	14	7	3	4	+4	24
7	Derby	14	6	3	5	+2	21
8	Swansea	15	5	4	6	+0	19
9	Hull	15	5	4	6	-5	19
10	Birmingham	15	4	6	5	-1	18
11	Nott'm Forest	15	3	8	4	+1	17
12	Aston Villa	14	4	5	5	+0	17
13	Sheffield Weds	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	QPR	15	4	4	7	-9	16
15	Blackburn	15	4	4	7	-12	16
16	Preston	15	4	3	8	-7	15
17	Stoke	15	2	8	5	-7	14
18	Brentford	14	1	7	6	-6	10
19	Reading	15	1	7	7	-9	10
20	Bolton	15	2	4	9	-16	10
21	Millwall	14	1	4	9	-12	7
22	Wigan	15	1	2	12	-17	5
23	Rotherham	15	0	5	10	-17	5
24	Ipswich	15	1	2	12	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.