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Championship

Referee: Andy Woolmer

Derby

U U T S U

2–1

Full-time

Reading

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Championship · 25/27 matches

Win Ø 34%

48%

19%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 62%

68%

56%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 6. · Reading 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	28	15	8	5	+16	53
2	Sheffield United	27	15	5	7	+18	50
3	Leeds	25	14	6	5	+13	48
4	West Brom	26	13	7	6	+20	46
5	Middlesbrough	27	12	10	5	+11	46
6	Derby	25	12	7	6	+9	43
7	Bristol City	27	11	8	8	+5	41
8	Nott'm Forest	27	9	12	6	+8	39
9	Birmingham	28	9	12	7	+7	39
10	Hull	27	11	6	10	+6	39
11	QPR	27	11	6	10	-2	39
12	Aston Villa	26	9	10	7	+6	37
13	Swansea	27	10	7	10	+4	37
14	Blackburn	27	9	10	8	-6	37
15	Stoke	27	8	11	8	-3	35
16	Sheffield Weds	27	8	8	11	-13	32
17	Brentford	27	7	10	10	+2	31
18	Preston	27	7	9	11	-5	30
19	Wigan	27	8	5	14	-12	29
20	Millwall	27	7	7	13	-10	28
21	Rotherham	27	5	10	12	-17	25
22	Reading	27	5	8	14	-11	23
23	Bolton	27	5	7	15	-22	22
24	Ipswich	27	3	9	15	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	9	1	4	+6	28
2	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+11	27
3	Leeds	13	8	3	2	+11	27
4	West Brom	13	7	4	2	+15	25
5	Brentford	14	7	3	4	+10	24
6	Wigan	14	7	3	4	+2	24
7	Derby	12	6	5	1	+7	23
8	QPR	13	7	2	4	+6	23
9	Birmingham	14	5	7	2	+8	22
10	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+5	22
11	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+5	22
12	Millwall	14	6	4	4	+2	22
13	Hull	14	6	3	5	+8	21
14	Preston	14	5	6	3	+7	21
15	Aston Villa	13	5	6	2	+6	21
16	Blackburn	13	5	6	2	+3	21
17	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+2	21
18	Rotherham	13	5	6	2	+0	21
19	Bristol City	14	5	5	4	+2	20
20	Swansea	13	5	3	5	+2	18
21	Sheffield Weds	13	4	6	3	-2	18
22	Reading	14	4	2	8	-3	14
23	Ipswich	14	2	7	5	-5	13
24	Bolton	13	3	3	7	-8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	14	6	7	1	+10	25
2	Middlesbrough	14	6	6	2	+6	24
3	Sheffield United	13	7	2	4	+7	23
4	West Brom	13	6	3	4	+5	21
5	Bristol City	13	6	3	4	+3	21
6	Leeds	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Derby	13	6	2	5	+2	20
8	Swansea	14	5	4	5	+2	19
9	Hull	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Nott'm Forest	14	3	8	3	+3	17
11	Birmingham	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Aston Villa	13	4	4	5	+0	16
13	QPR	14	4	4	6	-8	16
14	Blackburn	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Stoke	14	2	8	4	-5	14
16	Sheffield Weds	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Bolton	14	2	4	8	-14	10
18	Reading	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Preston	13	2	3	8	-12	9
20	Brentford	13	0	7	6	-8	7
21	Millwall	13	1	3	9	-12	6
22	Wigan	13	1	2	10	-14	5
23	Ipswich	13	1	2	10	-19	5
24	Rotherham	14	0	4	10	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.