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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Freiburg

T U S U S

1–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 60%

44%

75%

Points per game

1,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

69%

56%

Both score Ø 57%

69%

44%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,3

2,4

Conceded

1,7

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,8

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

25% Possession 75%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 11

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	3	1	+29	39
2	RB Leipzig	16	11	3	2	+16	36
3	Hertha	16	9	3	4	+8	30
4	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	5	3	+10	29
5	Hoffenheim	16	6	10	0	+11	28
6	Dortmund	16	7	6	3	+16	27
7	FC Koln	16	6	7	3	+6	25
8	Freiburg	16	7	2	7	-6	23
9	Leverkusen	16	6	3	7	-1	21
10	Mainz	16	6	2	8	-4	20
11	Schalke 04	16	5	3	8	+1	18
12	Augsburg	16	4	6	6	-4	18
13	Wolfsburg	16	4	4	8	-9	16
14	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-10	16
15	Werder Bremen	16	4	4	8	-14	16
16	Hamburg	16	3	4	9	-17	13
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	3	3	10	-13	12
18	Darmstadt	16	2	2	12	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+22	23
2	Hertha	8	7	0	1	+11	21
3	RB Leipzig	7	6	1	0	+9	19
4	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+13	18
5	Ein Frankfurt	8	5	3	0	+7	18
6	Hoffenheim	9	4	5	0	+7	17
7	FC Koln	8	4	4	0	+9	16
8	M'gladbach	9	4	3	2	+5	15
9	Freiburg	7	5	0	2	+0	15
10	Schalke 04	8	4	1	3	+6	13
11	Mainz	7	4	1	2	+4	13
12	Leverkusen	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Werder Bremen	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	-4	9
15	Darmstadt	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Hamburg	8	2	2	4	-9	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Wolfsburg	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	5	2	2	+7	17
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	2	5	0	+4	11
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	2	3	+3	11
5	Wolfsburg	8	3	2	3	-2	11
6	Leverkusen	8	3	1	4	-1	10
7	Dortmund	8	2	3	3	+3	9
8	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	+0	9
9	Hertha	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	FC Koln	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Freiburg	9	2	2	5	-6	8
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	2	1	5	-6	7
13	Mainz	9	2	1	6	-8	7
14	Werder Bremen	8	1	3	4	-12	6
15	Schalke 04	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Hamburg	8	1	2	5	-8	5
17	M'gladbach	7	0	1	6	-15	1
18	Darmstadt	8	0	0	8	-16	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.