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La Liga
Referee: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo
Villarreal
U T S S S
1–0
Full-time
Valencia
U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,5
This season — La Liga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 44%
56%
31%
Points per game
1,9
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
44%
38%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
0,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%
9 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 6
3 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Valencia 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 16 12 2 2 +25 38
2 Ath Madrid 17 12 2 3 +16 38
3 Real Madrid 17 11 3 3 +29 36
4 Celta 17 9 4 4 +5 31
5 Villarreal 16 9 3 4 +6 30
6 La Coruna 17 6 9 2 +9 27
7 Ath Bilbao 17 8 3 6 +7 27
8 Sevilla 17 7 5 5 +4 26
9 Eibar 17 6 6 5 +2 24
10 Valencia 16 5 7 4 +7 22
11 Malaga 17 5 5 7 -3 20
12 Betis 17 5 5 7 -10 20
13 Espanol 17 6 2 9 -12 20
14 Getafe 17 4 5 8 -8 17
15 Sociedad 17 4 4 9 -7 16
16 Las Palmas 17 4 4 9 -8 16
17 Sp Gijon 16 4 3 9 -10 15
18 Granada 17 3 5 9 -13 14
19 Vallecano 17 4 2 11 -21 14
20 Levante 17 2 5 10 -18 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Villarreal Valencia
16′
🟨 André Gomes
45′
🟨 Antonio Barragán
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Bruno
64′
Nahuel Leiva 🔁
↦ J. dos Santos
67′
Roberto Soldado 🟨
68′
69′
🔁 Santi Mina
↦ Barragán
Tomás Pina 🔁
↦ Trigueros
74′
74′
🔁 P. Piatti
↦ Danilo Barbosa
Léo Baptistão 🔁
↦ C. Bakambu
80′
87′
🔁 Fran Villalba
↦ Dani Parejo
90′
🟨 Francisco Villalba
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Villarreal

13 A. Areola G
5 M. Musacchio D
2 Mario Gaspar D
6 Víctor Ruíz D
27 Adrián Marín D
21 Bruno M
8 J. dos Santos M
18 Denis Suárez M
14 Trigueros M
9 Soldado F
17 C. Bakambu F
Bench (7)
26 Nahuel Leiva
4 Tomás Pina
10 Léo Baptistão
7 Samu
19 Samu Castillejo
22 A. Rukavina
25 M. Barbosa

Valencia

24 Jaume Doménech G
19 Barragán M
23 A. Abdennour D
4 Aderllan Santos D
2 João Cancelo D
3 Rúben Vezo D
10 Dani Parejo M
21 André Gomes M
12 Danilo Barbosa M
7 Negredo F
9 Paco Alcácer F
Bench (7)
22 Santi Mina
11 P. Piatti
30 Fran Villalba
6 L. Orbán
18 Javi Fuego
20 R. de Paul
25 M. Ryan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo · 53 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.