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La Liga

Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez

Villarreal

U S T U T

2–1

Full-time

Vallecano

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

46%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

46%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

54%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

4 Offside 6

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 6. · Vallecano 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	11	1	2	+21	34
2	Ath Madrid	14	10	2	2	+14	32
3	Real Madrid	14	9	3	2	+20	30
4	Celta	14	7	4	3	+3	25
5	La Coruna	14	5	7	2	+7	22
6	Villarreal	13	6	3	4	+2	21
7	Valencia	14	5	5	4	+7	20
8	Ath Bilbao	13	6	2	5	+5	20
9	Eibar	14	5	5	4	+2	20
10	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	+0	19
11	Betis	14	5	4	5	-5	19
12	Espanol	13	5	1	7	-10	16
13	Sociedad	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	Getafe	14	4	2	8	-8	14
15	Vallecano	13	4	2	7	-9	14
16	Sp Gijon	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Granada	14	2	5	7	-9	11
18	Malaga	13	2	4	7	-6	10
19	Las Palmas	13	2	4	7	-9	10
20	Levante	13	2	4	7	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+17	21
2	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Sevilla	7	5	0	2	+5	15
5	Getafe	7	4	1	2	+7	13
6	Valencia	7	3	4	0	+7	13
7	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Ath Bilbao	6	4	0	2	+6	12
9	Celta	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Eibar	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	La Coruna	7	2	4	1	+4	10
12	Vallecano	7	3	1	3	-2	10
13	Espanol	6	3	1	2	-3	10
14	Malaga	7	2	3	2	+2	9
15	Sociedad	7	2	2	3	-1	8
16	Las Palmas	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-5	6
18	Sp Gijon	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Betis	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Granada	7	1	2	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Real Madrid	7	4	2	1	+10	14
3	Celta	7	4	2	1	+2	14
4	Betis	7	4	2	1	+0	14
5	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	La Coruna	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Eibar	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Ath Bilbao	7	2	2	3	-1	8
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Valencia	7	2	1	4	+0	7
11	Sociedad	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Sp Gijon	7	2	1	4	-4	7
13	Granada	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Espanol	7	2	0	5	-7	6
15	Sevilla	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Vallecano	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Levante	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Las Palmas	6	0	2	4	-8	2
19	Malaga	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Getafe	7	0	1	6	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.