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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Roma

T U U S U

1–1

Full-time

Milan

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

50%

44%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 8

8 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	18	12	3	3	+13	39
2	Napoli	18	11	5	2	+19	38
3	Fiorentina	19	12	2	5	+18	38
4	Juventus	18	11	3	4	+17	36
5	Roma	18	9	6	3	+14	33
6	Sassuolo	17	7	7	3	+5	28
7	Milan	18	8	4	6	+2	28
8	Empoli	18	8	3	7	+0	27
9	Lazio	19	8	3	8	-4	27
10	Atalanta	18	7	3	8	-1	24
11	Udinese	19	7	3	9	-9	24
12	Chievo	18	6	5	7	+3	23
13	Sampdoria	18	6	5	7	-1	23
14	Torino	17	6	4	7	+0	22
15	Bologna	18	7	1	10	-4	22
16	Palermo	18	5	3	10	-11	18
17	Genoa	18	4	4	10	-9	16
18	Frosinone	18	4	3	11	-17	15
19	Carpi	19	3	5	11	-17	14
20	Verona	18	0	8	10	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	2	0	+12	23
2	Fiorentina	10	7	1	2	+13	22
3	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Roma	8	6	1	1	+11	19
5	Inter	9	6	1	2	+5	19
6	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+6	18
7	Sampdoria	9	5	2	2	+7	17
8	Milan	9	5	2	2	+2	17
9	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+7	16
10	Sassuolo	8	4	4	0	+4	16
11	Torino	9	4	3	2	+5	15
12	Empoli	9	4	1	4	+1	13
13	Genoa	9	4	1	4	+0	13
14	Frosinone	9	4	1	4	-1	13
15	Chievo	9	3	3	3	+3	12
16	Palermo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
17	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Bologna	9	3	1	5	+0	10
19	Carpi	10	2	3	5	-3	9
20	Verona	9	0	4	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	9	6	2	1	+8	20
2	Juventus	9	5	1	3	+7	16
3	Fiorentina	9	5	1	3	+5	16
4	Napoli	9	4	3	2	+7	15
5	Roma	10	3	5	2	+3	14
6	Empoli	9	4	2	3	-1	14
7	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-5	13
8	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
9	Bologna	9	4	0	5	-4	12
10	Milan	9	3	2	4	+0	11
11	Chievo	9	3	2	4	+0	11
12	Lazio	9	3	0	6	-10	9
13	Atalanta	10	2	2	6	-8	8
14	Torino	8	2	1	5	-5	7
15	Palermo	8	2	1	5	-7	7
16	Sampdoria	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	Carpi	9	1	2	6	-14	5
18	Verona	9	0	4	5	-10	4
19	Genoa	9	0	3	6	-9	3
20	Frosinone	9	0	2	7	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.