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Serie A

Referee: Antonio Damato

Inter

T S T S U

4–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 40%

38%

42%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

62%

42%

Both score Ø 60%

69%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

44% Possession 56%

22 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

28 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Inter 12. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	11	0	3	+17	33
2	Roma	14	9	2	3	+17	29
3	Milan	14	9	2	3	+7	29
4	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+13	28
5	Atalanta	14	9	1	4	+9	28
6	Torino	14	7	4	3	+14	25
7	Napoli	14	7	4	3	+9	25
8	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+7	20
9	Genoa	13	5	4	4	+2	19
10	Sampdoria	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Cagliari	14	6	1	7	-9	19
12	Inter	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Chievo	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Bologna	14	4	4	6	-7	16
15	Udinese	14	4	3	7	-5	15
16	Sassuolo	14	4	2	8	-9	14
17	Empoli	14	2	4	8	-14	10
18	Pescara	14	1	4	9	-15	7
19	Crotone	14	1	3	10	-16	6
20	Palermo	14	1	3	10	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	7	7	0	0	+17	21
2	Juventus	7	7	0	0	+15	21
3	Torino	7	5	2	0	+12	17
4	Lazio	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	Cagliari	7	5	1	1	+5	16
6	Milan	7	5	1	1	+5	16
7	Atalanta	7	5	0	2	+5	15
8	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Genoa	7	3	4	0	+7	13
10	Sampdoria	6	4	1	1	+3	13
11	Bologna	8	4	1	3	+2	13
12	Inter	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Chievo	7	3	2	2	+1	11
14	Fiorentina	6	2	4	0	+2	10
15	Sassuolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
16	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Crotone	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Empoli	8	1	2	5	-12	5
19	Pescara	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Palermo	7	0	0	7	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+4	13
2	Milan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
3	Lazio	7	3	3	1	+3	12
4	Juventus	7	4	0	3	+2	12
5	Napoli	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+5	10
7	Torino	7	2	2	3	+2	8
8	Roma	7	2	2	3	+0	8
9	Inter	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Chievo	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Palermo	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Genoa	6	2	0	4	-5	6
14	Sampdoria	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Empoli	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Pescara	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Bologna	6	0	3	3	-9	3
19	Cagliari	7	1	0	6	-14	3
20	Crotone	7	0	1	6	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.