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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Valeri

Bologna

U T U U U

0–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 32%

30%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

30%

44%

Both score Ø 63%

70%

56%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

5 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

3 Offside 6

8 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 13. · Fiorentina 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	8	0	2	+14	24
2	Roma	10	7	1	2	+14	22
3	Napoli	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Milan	10	6	1	3	+2	19
5	Lazio	10	5	3	2	+9	18
6	Atalanta	10	5	1	4	+0	16
7	Torino	10	4	3	3	+7	15
8	Genoa	9	4	3	2	+5	15
9	Chievo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Inter	10	4	2	4	+0	14
11	Fiorentina	9	3	4	2	+2	13
12	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-3	13
13	Bologna	10	3	4	3	-3	13
14	Sassuolo	10	4	1	5	-4	13
15	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	-6	13
16	Sampdoria	10	3	2	5	-5	11
17	Pescara	10	1	4	5	-6	7
18	Empoli	10	1	3	6	-11	6
19	Palermo	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Crotone	10	0	2	8	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	5	5	0	0	+13	15
2	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Milan	5	4	0	1	+4	12
5	Torino	5	3	2	0	+7	11
6	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+7	10
7	Cagliari	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Genoa	5	2	3	0	+5	9
10	Fiorentina	5	2	3	0	+2	9
11	Atalanta	5	3	0	2	+1	9
12	Sassuolo	5	3	0	2	-1	9
13	Inter	5	2	2	1	+1	8
14	Chievo	5	2	2	1	+1	8
15	Sampdoria	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-5	4
18	Pescara	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Palermo	5	0	0	5	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	3	0	2	+3	9
2	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+3	8
3	Lazio	5	2	2	1	+2	8
4	Roma	5	2	1	2	+1	7
5	Chievo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	-1	7
7	Milan	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Genoa	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Inter	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Palermo	5	1	3	1	-2	6
11	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-3	6
12	Fiorentina	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Torino	5	1	1	3	+0	4
14	Pescara	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Sampdoria	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Bologna	5	0	3	2	-6	3
18	Cagliari	5	1	0	4	-9	3
19	Empoli	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Crotone	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.