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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Paris SG

S U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Bastia

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 58%

84%

32%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

63%

42%

Both score Ø 45%

42%

47%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,1

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

76% Possession 24%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 0

6 Offside 4

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Bastia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	16	3	0	+39	51
2	Monaco	19	8	8	3	+2	32
3	Angers	19	8	7	4	+6	31
4	Caen	19	9	3	7	-1	30
5	Nice	19	8	5	6	+9	29
6	St Etienne	19	9	2	8	+0	29
7	Rennes	19	6	9	4	+4	27
8	Lorient	19	6	8	5	+1	26
9	Lyon	19	7	5	7	+0	26
10	Marseille	19	6	7	6	+7	25
11	Lille	19	5	9	5	+2	24
12	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	19	6	6	7	-2	24
13	Nantes	19	6	6	7	-3	24
14	Bordeaux	19	5	8	6	-5	23
15	Montpellier	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Bastia	19	6	4	9	-4	22
17	Reims	19	5	6	8	-5	21
18	Guingamp	19	5	4	10	-10	19
19	Toulouse	19	3	8	8	-12	17
20	Troyes	19	0	8	11	-25	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	St Etienne	10	6	2	2	+7	20
3	Bastia	10	6	0	4	+5	18
4	Bordeaux	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Lorient	10	4	4	2	+6	16
6	Caen	10	5	1	4	-4	16
7	Angers	10	3	6	1	+2	15
8	Montpellier	10	5	0	5	+0	15
9	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+4	14
10	Lille	9	4	2	3	+4	14
11	Nice	9	4	1	4	+4	13
12	Reims	10	3	4	3	+2	13
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	3	4	2	+2	13
14	Monaco	9	3	4	2	-1	13
15	Guingamp	9	3	3	3	+1	12
16	Nantes	9	3	3	3	-1	12
17	Marseille	10	2	5	3	+6	11
18	Toulouse	9	2	5	2	+1	11
19	Rennes	9	2	4	3	-2	10
20	Troyes	11	0	6	5	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+18	29
2	Monaco	10	5	4	1	+3	19
3	Rennes	10	4	5	1	+6	17
4	Nice	10	4	4	2	+5	16
5	Angers	9	5	1	3	+4	16
6	Caen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
7	Marseille	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Nantes	10	3	3	4	-2	12
9	Lyon	10	3	3	4	-4	12
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Lille	10	1	7	2	-2	10
12	Lorient	9	2	4	3	-5	10
13	St Etienne	9	3	0	6	-7	9
14	Reims	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	Montpellier	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Guingamp	10	2	1	7	-11	7
17	Toulouse	10	1	3	6	-13	6
18	Bordeaux	9	0	5	4	-9	5
19	Bastia	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Troyes	8	0	2	6	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.