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Ligue 1

Referee: Lionel Jaffredo

Bastia

T T T S T

0–2

Full-time

Paris SG

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bastia Paris SG

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

33%

78%

Points per game

1,1

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

31% Possession 69%

6 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bastia 13. · Paris SG 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	7	2	0	+14	23
2	Angers	9	5	3	1	+5	18
3	Caen	9	6	0	3	+1	18
4	Rennes	9	4	4	1	+5	16
5	Lyon	10	4	4	2	+5	16
6	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+1	16
7	Reims	9	4	3	2	+4	15
8	Nice	8	4	2	2	+9	14
9	Lorient	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Monaco	10	3	5	2	-1	14
11	Guingamp	9	4	1	4	-3	13
12	Lille	9	2	4	3	+0	10
13	Bastia	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Bordeaux	9	2	4	3	-3	10
15	Nantes	8	3	1	4	-6	10
16	Marseille	9	2	2	5	+3	8
17	Toulouse	9	1	5	3	-5	8
18	Montpellier	9	1	1	7	-8	4
19	Troyes	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	9	0	3	6	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caen	5	4	0	1	+1	12
2	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Reims	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Bastia	4	3	0	1	+5	9
6	Angers	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Marseille	5	2	1	2	+7	7
10	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+3	7
11	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Lille	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	St Etienne	4	2	1	1	+0	7
14	Nice	4	2	0	2	+4	6
15	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+1	6
16	Nantes	4	2	0	2	-3	6
17	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Troyes	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Monaco	5	0	3	2	-4	3
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Angers	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	St Etienne	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	Nice	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Rennes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Caen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Guingamp	5	2	0	3	-5	6
10	Reims	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Lorient	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Lille	4	0	3	1	-1	3
14	Bordeaux	5	0	3	2	-6	3
15	Toulouse	5	0	2	3	-6	2
16	Marseille	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1
19	Bastia	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Troyes	3	0	1	2	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.