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Ligue 1
Referee: Francois Letexier
Paris SG
S S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Lille
U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
1,7
Scored
2,2
0,7
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 48%
65%
30%
Points per game
2,1
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
52%
35%
Both score Ø 42%
35%
48%
Average goals
2,7
2,1
Scored
2,0
0,9
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

77% Possession 23%
20 Shots 4
7 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 1
3 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Lille 12. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Monaco 24 17 4 3 +47 55
2 Paris SG 23 15 4 4 +28 49
3 Nice 23 14 7 2 +20 49
4 Lyon 22 12 1 9 +13 37
5 St Etienne 23 9 9 5 +8 36
6 Bordeaux 24 9 9 6 +1 36
7 Marseille 23 9 6 8 +1 33
8 Guingamp 23 8 7 8 +1 31
9 Rennes 23 8 7 8 -4 31
10 Toulouse 23 8 5 10 +0 29
11 Nancy 22 7 6 9 -7 27
12 Lille 23 7 5 11 -7 26
13 Montpellier 24 6 8 10 -9 26
14 Metz 22 7 5 10 -16 26
15 Nantes 23 7 5 11 -16 26
16 Caen 23 7 4 12 -15 25
17 Dijon 23 5 9 9 -4 24
18 Angers 23 6 5 12 -13 23
19 Bastia 23 5 7 11 -8 22
20 Lorient 23 6 3 14 -20 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

28. Oct -16 Lille – Paris SG 0–1 13. Feb -16 Paris SG – Lille 0–0 7. Aug -15 Lille – Paris SG 0–1

Match report

Paris SG Lille
30′
🟨 Yassine Benzia
Half-time 0–0
54′
🔁 N. de Préville
↦ Y. Benzia
Presnel Kimpembe 🟨
60′
A. Rabiot 🔁
↦ H. Ben Arfa
61′
Lucas Moura 🔁
↦ J. Draxler
65′
1–0 E. Cavani ⚽
70′
71′
🔁 E. Bauthéac
↦ R. Kishna
82′
🔁 Y. Bissouma
↦ F. Béria
83′
🟨 Sébastien Corchia
86′
⚽ N. de Préville 1–1
90′
🟨 Vincent Enyeama
2–1 Lucas Moura ⚽
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Paris SG

4-2-3-1
16 A. Areola G
17 Maxwell D
2 Thiago Silva D
19 S. Aurier D
3 P. Kimpembe D
14 B. Matuidi M
21 H. Ben Arfa F
8 T. Motta M
11 Á. di María F
23 J. Draxler M
9 E. Cavani F
Bench (7)
25 A. Rabiot
7 Lucas Moura
5 Marquinhos
15 Goncalo Guedes
20 L. Kurzawa
24 C. Nkunku
40 R. Descamps

Coach: Unai Emery

Lille

3-4-3
1 V. Enyeama G
25 M. Baša D
18 F. Béria D
15 J. Palmieri D
2 S. Corchia D
23 A. Soumaoro D
6 I. Amadou M
8 Xeka M
9 Y. Benzia M
10 R. Kishna M
7 A. El Ghazi M
Bench (7)
12 N. de Préville
11 E. Bauthéac
21 Y. Bissouma
16 M. Maignan
22 J. Alonso
26 F. Bahlouli
27 N. Sliti

Coach: P. Collot

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Francois Letexier · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.