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Serie A

Referee: Massimiliano Irrati

Roma

S S S S T

4–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 57%

68%

45%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

23 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Fiorentina 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	22	18	0	4	+29	54
2	Napoli	23	14	6	3	+29	48
3	Roma	22	15	2	5	+23	47
4	Lazio	23	13	4	6	+14	43
5	Inter	23	13	3	7	+13	42
6	Atalanta	23	13	3	7	+11	42
7	Fiorentina	22	10	7	5	+9	37
8	Milan	22	11	4	7	+5	37
9	Torino	23	8	8	7	+7	32
10	Sampdoria	23	8	6	9	-3	30
11	Udinese	23	8	5	10	-2	29
12	Chievo	23	8	5	10	-8	29
13	Sassuolo	23	8	3	12	-5	27
14	Bologna	22	7	6	9	-11	27
15	Cagliari	23	8	3	12	-16	27
16	Genoa	23	6	7	10	-6	25
17	Empoli	23	5	7	11	-17	22
18	Palermo	23	3	5	15	-23	14
19	Crotone	22	3	4	15	-18	13
20	Pescara	23	1	6	16	-31	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	12	0	0	+24	36
2	Roma	10	10	0	0	+21	30
3	Napoli	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Inter	11	8	2	1	+16	26
5	Lazio	12	8	1	3	+11	25
6	Atalanta	11	8	0	3	+7	24
7	Milan	12	7	2	3	+5	23
8	Cagliari	11	7	2	2	+4	23
9	Torino	11	6	4	1	+11	22
10	Fiorentina	11	5	6	0	+5	21
11	Sampdoria	11	6	3	2	+5	21
12	Genoa	12	4	5	3	+5	17
13	Udinese	12	5	2	5	+1	17
14	Bologna	11	5	2	4	-2	17
15	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	-1	16
16	Chievo	12	4	4	4	-4	16
17	Empoli	12	4	3	5	-8	15
18	Crotone	10	3	2	5	-2	11
19	Palermo	11	1	1	9	-14	4
20	Pescara	12	0	4	8	-18	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	6	3	2	+15	21
2	Juventus	10	6	0	4	+5	18
3	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+4	18
4	Lazio	11	5	3	3	+3	18
5	Roma	12	5	2	5	+2	17
6	Fiorentina	11	5	1	5	+4	16
7	Inter	12	5	1	6	-3	16
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Chievo	11	4	1	6	-4	13
10	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-3	12
11	Sassuolo	12	3	2	7	-4	11
12	Torino	12	2	4	6	-4	10
13	Palermo	12	2	4	6	-9	10
14	Bologna	11	2	4	5	-9	10
15	Sampdoria	12	2	3	7	-8	9
16	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Empoli	11	1	4	6	-9	7
18	Pescara	11	1	2	8	-13	5
19	Cagliari	12	1	1	10	-20	4
20	Crotone	12	0	2	10	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.