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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Guimaraes

T U S T S

3–1

Full-time

Rio Ave

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

27%

45%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 12. · Rio Ave 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+16	32
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+20	30
3	Benfica	11	8	0	3	+20	24
4	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+11	21
5	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	6	2	+5	18
6	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	-2	17
8	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
9	Nacional	12	4	3	5	+0	15
10	Estoril	12	4	3	5	-5	15
11	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
12	Guimaraes	11	3	4	4	-6	13
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	U. Madeira	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-8	9
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Estoril	6	3	3	0	+4	12
6	Rio Ave	6	4	0	2	+2	12
7	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
8	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	U. Madeira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
14	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
4	Arouca	6	1	5	0	+2	8
5	Sp Braga	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
9	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
10	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
13	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-9	3
15	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.