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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Guimaraes

U T T U S

0–1

Full-time

Nacional

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 28%

33%

22%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 11. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Porto	8	5	3	0	+12	18
3	Rio Ave	9	5	3	1	+6	18
4	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+12	17
5	Benfica	8	5	0	3	+13	15
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	5	1	+4	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Estoril	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Arouca	9	2	6	1	+1	12
10	Maritimo	9	3	2	4	-3	11
11	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	-6	10
12	Belenenses	9	2	4	3	-11	10
13	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	U. Madeira	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Academica	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-8	5
18	Moreirense	9	0	4	5	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+11	12
4	Rio Ave	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
6	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Belenenses	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	4	0	+1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	U. Madeira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Academica	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Arouca	5	1	4	0	+2	7
4	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	1	1	+0	7
5	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+3	6
6	Porto	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-3	5
8	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-6	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Maritimo	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Benfica	3	1	0	2	+2	3
12	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-7	3
13	Academica	5	0	2	3	-4	2
14	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
15	Belenenses	5	0	2	3	-14	2
16	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	U. Madeira	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	Nacional	5	0	0	5	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.