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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Arouca

U S T S U

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

6 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 8. · Estoril 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+19	38
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+21	36
3	Benfica	15	11	1	3	+25	34
4	Sp Braga	15	7	5	3	+12	26
5	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	7	3	+5	22
6	Pacos Ferreira	15	6	4	5	+4	22
7	Rio Ave	15	6	3	6	+1	21
8	Arouca	15	4	8	3	+2	20
9	Guimaraes	15	5	4	6	-5	19
10	Maritimo	15	5	3	7	-7	18
11	Moreirense	15	4	5	6	-3	17
12	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-6	17
13	U. Madeira	16	4	5	7	-11	17
14	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-14	17
15	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-3	16
16	Academica	15	3	4	8	-13	13
17	Boavista	16	2	4	10	-13	10
18	Tondela	15	2	2	11	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+15	22
2	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	19
4	Rio Ave	8	5	0	3	+3	15
5	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
6	Sp Braga	7	4	2	1	+11	14
7	Pacos Ferreira	8	4	2	2	+7	14
8	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+2	14
9	Nacional	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
11	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Maritimo	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Academica	8	3	2	3	-4	11
14	Moreirense	7	2	3	2	+0	9
15	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	6	1	-1	9
16	Guimaraes	8	2	2	4	-1	8
17	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Tondela	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+8	19
2	Porto	7	4	2	1	+6	14
3	Benfica	7	4	1	2	+7	13
4	Vitoria Setubal	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+1	12
6	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-4	11
7	Arouca	8	1	6	1	+0	9
8	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
9	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-3	8
10	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
11	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
13	Estoril	8	1	2	5	-9	5
14	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-5	4
15	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-7	4
16	Belenenses	8	0	3	5	-16	3
17	Academica	7	0	2	5	-9	2
18	U. Madeira	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.