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Primeira Liga
Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao
Estoril
T U T U U
0–1
Full-time
Guimaraes
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 31%
31%
31%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 35%
23%
46%
Both score Ø 46%
38%
54%
Average goals
2,1
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

76% Possession 24%
13 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Estoril 11. · Guimaraes 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 13 11 2 0 +18 35
2 Porto 13 10 3 0 +21 33
3 Benfica 13 9 1 3 +22 28
4 Sp Braga 13 7 3 3 +12 24
5 Rio Ave 13 6 3 4 +4 21
6 Pacos Ferreira 13 6 2 5 +4 20
7 Arouca 14 4 7 3 +2 19
8 Vitoria Setubal 13 4 6 3 +3 18
9 Maritimo 14 5 2 7 -7 17
10 Guimaraes 13 4 4 5 -5 16
11 Estoril 13 4 4 5 -5 16
12 Nacional 13 4 3 6 -1 15
13 Belenenses 13 3 4 6 -15 13
14 Moreirense 13 2 5 6 -8 11
15 U. Madeira 13 2 5 6 -11 11
16 Boavista 13 2 4 7 -8 10
17 Academica 13 2 4 7 -13 10
18 Tondela 13 1 2 10 -13 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estoril Guimaraes
4′
Otavinho 0–1
24′
🟨 João Afonso
27′
🟨 Thibang Phete
Half-time 0–1
58′
🟨 Cafú
60′
🔁 Bruno Alves
↦ T. Phete
Luiz Phellype 🔁
↦ Dieguinho
66′
Yohan Tavares 🟨
73′
Matheuzinho 🔁
↦ L. Chaparro
74′
74′
🔁 Valente
↦ Alexandre Silva
Diego Carlos 🟨
85′
88′
🔁 Moreno
↦ Otavinho
90′
🟨 Dalbert
90′
🟨 João Afonso
90′
🟥 João Afonso
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Estoril

1 P. Kieszek G
5 Anderson Luis D
7 Mano D
2 Yohan Tavares D
34 Diego Carlos D
91 L. Chaparro
25 Diogo Amado M
6 Afonso Taira M
10 Gerso Fernandes F
30 Dieguinho
9 Léo Bonatini F
Bench (7)
28 Luiz Phellype
93 Matheuzinho
3 A. Kakuba
8 B. Sebaihi
12 Georgemy
13 A. Esiti
27 Mattheus

Guimaraes

56 João Miguel G
3 Josué Sá D
76 Bruno Gaspar D
15 João Afonso D
93 Dalbert Henrique D
26 Cafú M
52 Otavinho M
94 T. Phete M
11 Licá F
9 Tómané F
45 Alexandre Silva F
Bench (7)
48 Bruno Alves
7 Valente
6 Moreno
2 Pedrão
80 I. Gui
70 Tozé
1 Douglas Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,58 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.