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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Rio Ave

U S T T T

3–1

Full-time

Arouca

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

58%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,9

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

10 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 9

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Arouca 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+16	32
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+20	30
3	Benfica	11	8	0	3	+20	24
4	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+11	21
5	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	6	2	+5	18
6	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+2	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	2	5	-2	17
8	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
9	Guimaraes	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Estoril	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Nacional	12	4	3	5	+0	15
12	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Belenenses	12	3	4	5	-14	13
14	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	U. Madeira	11	2	4	5	-5	10
16	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Estoril	6	3	3	0	+4	12
6	Rio Ave	6	4	0	2	+2	12
7	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
8	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	+1	8
13	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	U. Madeira	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
4	Arouca	6	1	5	0	+2	8
5	Sp Braga	6	2	2	2	+0	8
6	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
9	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	+0	6
10	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
13	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.