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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Sp Braga

T S S S U

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

63%

13%

Points per game

2,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

3 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Tondela 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Porto	17	11	5	1	+24	38
3	Sp Lisbon	17	10	4	3	+13	34
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Maritimo	17	8	2	7	+1	26
7	Chaves	17	5	9	3	+2	24
8	Rio Ave	17	7	3	7	-1	24
9	Arouca	17	7	2	8	-4	23
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	6	4	7	+0	22
11	Boavista	17	5	6	6	-1	21
12	Belenenses	17	5	5	7	-5	20
13	Pacos Ferreira	17	4	5	8	-9	17
14	Estoril	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Feirense	17	4	3	10	-19	15
16	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-14	14
17	Nacional	17	3	3	11	-12	12
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
4	Benfica	8	6	2	0	+15	20
5	Maritimo	8	5	1	2	+5	16
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
7	Chaves	9	3	5	1	+2	14
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Arouca	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Belenenses	8	3	3	2	+0	12
13	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
14	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-10	8
18	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+6	19
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Sp Lisbon	8	3	3	2	+0	12
5	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+0	11
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
8	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-3	10
9	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
11	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Moreirense	9	2	0	7	-11	6
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-5	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.