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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Andre Cardoso Antunes

Nacional

U U T T T

3–2

Full-time

Tondela

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

53% Possession 47%

18 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+20	29
2	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+13	27
3	Porto	12	7	4	1	+15	25
4	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+7	24
5	Sp Braga	12	7	2	3	+9	23
6	Chaves	13	4	7	2	+2	19
7	Rio Ave	12	5	2	5	-1	17
8	Belenenses	13	4	5	4	-3	17
9	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Estoril	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	Arouca	12	4	2	6	-6	14
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	4	5	-3	13
14	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-4	13
15	Moreirense	13	3	2	8	-8	11
16	Feirense	12	3	2	7	-14	11
17	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Nacional	12	2	2	8	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Porto	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+12	13
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Chaves	7	2	4	1	+1	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Guimaraes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Belenenses	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Rio Ave	7	3	0	4	-2	9
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Estoril	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Tondela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Feirense	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Porto	6	2	3	1	+5	9
4	Chaves	6	2	3	1	+1	9
5	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Sp Lisbon	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Belenenses	7	2	2	3	-3	8
8	Estoril	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Sp Braga	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Feirense	6	2	1	3	-6	7
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-7	6
14	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-3	4
16	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Tondela	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.