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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Chaves

T T U T T

3–0

Full-time

Moreirense

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 10%

20%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

0,6

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 18. · Moreirense 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Maritimo	6	5	0	1	+4	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Sp Braga	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Feirense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-5	7
9	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-7	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
12	Boavista	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Portimonense	6	2	0	4	-3	6
14	Estoril	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-1	5
16	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Aves	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Chaves	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	4	4	0	0	+4	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Belenenses	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Boavista	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-3	6
11	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	9
3	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+0	4
6	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-5	3
11	Aves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Guimaraes	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.