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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Lisbon

U S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Belenenses

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 59%

75%

42%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Belenenses 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+26	32
2	Sp Lisbon	12	9	3	0	+18	30
3	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+21	29
4	Sp Braga	12	8	1	3	+10	25
5	Maritimo	12	7	2	3	+4	23
6	Rio Ave	12	5	2	5	+2	17
7	Guimaraes	12	5	2	5	-6	17
8	Boavista	12	5	1	6	-1	16
9	Belenenses	12	5	1	6	-3	16
10	Portimonense	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Chaves	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-3	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	3	6	-9	12
14	Feirense	12	3	2	7	-6	11
15	Aves	12	2	4	6	-8	10
16	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	4	6	-9	10
17	Moreirense	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Estoril	12	2	1	9	-18	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+20	18
2	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+17	18
3	Maritimo	7	5	2	0	+6	17
4	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+8	14
6	Portimonense	6	4	1	1	+6	13
7	Belenenses	6	4	1	1	+5	13
8	Boavista	6	4	0	2	+0	12
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	Rio Ave	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-4	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	3	1	+3	9
13	Chaves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Tondela	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Feirense	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Aves	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-4	3
18	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Benfica	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+0	10
5	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-2	7
7	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-6	7
8	Maritimo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Aves	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-3	5
11	Boavista	6	1	1	4	-1	4
12	Feirense	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Moreirense	7	1	1	5	-9	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-12	4
15	Belenenses	6	1	0	5	-8	3
16	Portimonense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-11	1
18	Vitoria Setubal	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.