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Primeira Liga
Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa
Sp Lisbon
S S S U U
5–1
Full-time
Chaves
T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Chaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,2
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 50%
75%
25%
Points per game
2,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
38%
38%
Both score Ø 38%
38%
38%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
2,0
1,1
Conceded
0,5
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

54% Possession 46%
10 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
4 Corners 4
6 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Chaves 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 9 8 1 0 +21 25
2 Benfica 9 6 2 1 +12 20
3 Sp Lisbon 8 6 2 0 +12 20
4 Maritimo 9 5 1 3 +1 16
5 Sp Braga 8 5 0 3 +6 15
6 Rio Ave 9 4 2 3 +2 14
7 Boavista 9 4 1 4 +2 13
8 Belenenses 9 4 1 4 -3 13
9 Feirense 9 3 2 4 -2 11
10 Vitoria Setubal 9 2 4 3 +1 10
11 Guimaraes 8 3 1 4 -7 10
12 Tondela 9 2 3 4 +0 9
13 Pacos Ferreira 9 2 3 4 -7 9
14 Chaves 8 2 2 4 -2 8
15 Portimonense 8 2 1 5 -6 7
16 Aves 9 1 3 5 -7 6
17 Moreirense 8 1 3 4 -8 6
18 Estoril 9 2 0 7 -15 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Chaves
1–0 B. Dost
Bruno Fernandes
6′
2–0 B. Dost
Daniel Podence
15′
Gelson Martins 🟨
31′
3–0 M. Acuña
Gelson Martins
39′
Half-time 3–0
56′
🔁 Hamdou Elhouni
↦ Perdigão
56′
🔁 Thiago Galvão
↦ R. Bressan
4–0 M. Acuña
B. Dost
58′
R. Battaglia 🔁
↦ Daniel Podence
67′
70′
🔁 Filipe Melo
↦ Jefferson
5–0 B. Dost
C. Piccini
75′
S. Doumbia 🔁
↦ Gelson Martins
76′
Bruno César 🔁
↦ Fábio Coentrão
80′
89′
🟨 Pedro Tiba
92′
Davidson 5–1
Thiago Galvão
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-4-2
1 Rui Patrício G
22 J. Mathieu D
5 Fábio Coentrão D
4 S. Coates D
92 C. Piccini D
14 William Carvalho M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
28 B. Dost F
9 M. Acuña M
77 Gelson Martins M
17 Daniel Podence M
Bench (7)
16 R. Battaglia
88 S. Doumbia
11 Bruno César
6 André Pinto
13 S. Ristovski
18 R. Salin
21 Mattheus

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Chaves

4-3-3
13 Ricardo Nunes G
4 Anderson Conceição D
2 Paulinho D
26 Djavan Ferreira D
19 N. Maraš D
12 R. Bressan M
25 Pedro Tiba M
6 Jefferson M
10 Perdigão F
99 Platiny F
91 Davidson F
Bench (7)
7 Hamdou Elhouni
20 Thiago Galvão
5 Filipe Melo
1 António Filipe
21 Jorginho
24 Pedro Queirós
92 Victor Guilherme

Coach: Luís Castro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Rui Manuel Gomes Costa · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.