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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Rio Ave

S T S S U

4–2

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

33%

60%

Both score Ø 54%

47%

60%

Average goals

1,9

3,0

Scored

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 7

13 Free kicks against 21

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 6. · Pacos Ferreira 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	12	3	0	+33	39
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+23	39
3	Benfica	15	11	3	1	+27	36
4	Sp Braga	16	11	1	4	+18	34
5	Maritimo	16	8	3	5	+2	27
6	Rio Ave	15	7	3	5	+5	24
7	Guimaraes	16	7	2	7	-6	23
8	Chaves	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Boavista	16	6	2	8	-4	20
10	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-7	18
11	Belenenses	15	5	2	8	-8	17
12	Portimonense	15	4	4	7	-4	16
13	Feirense	15	4	2	9	-7	14
14	Moreirense	16	3	5	8	-12	14
15	Aves	16	3	4	9	-10	13
16	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	4	8	-13	13
17	Estoril	15	3	2	10	-19	11
18	Vitoria Setubal	15	2	4	9	-16	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Sp Braga	8	7	0	1	+17	21
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
5	Maritimo	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Belenenses	7	4	2	1	+5	14
7	Portimonense	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Rio Ave	8	4	1	3	+2	13
9	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-4	13
10	Boavista	8	4	0	4	-4	12
11	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Feirense	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Chaves	7	2	3	2	+2	9
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	3	3	-3	9
15	Moreirense	7	1	4	2	-3	7
16	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Aves	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Porto	7	5	2	0	+11	17
3	Benfica	8	4	3	1	+8	15
4	Sp Braga	8	4	1	3	+1	13
5	Chaves	9	4	1	4	-4	13
6	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Tondela	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-2	10
9	Boavista	8	2	2	4	+0	8
10	Aves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-9	7
13	Feirense	7	1	1	5	-4	4
14	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-14	4
15	Portimonense	8	0	3	5	-9	3
16	Belenenses	8	1	0	7	-13	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	0	2	6	-14	2
18	Vitoria Setubal	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.