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Primeira Liga
Referee: Hugo Miguel
Benfica
S S U S S
1–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
3,0
1,8
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+1,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 77%
73%
80%
Points per game
2,4
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
60%
47%
Both score Ø 54%
60%
47%
Average goals
3,1
2,7
Scored
2,5
2,1
Conceded
0,7
0,6
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%
24 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Corners 5
2 Offside 6
16 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 3. · Sp Lisbon 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 16 13 3 0 +34 42
2 Sp Lisbon 15 12 3 0 +23 39
3 Benfica 15 11 3 1 +27 36
4 Sp Braga 16 11 1 4 +18 34
5 Rio Ave 16 8 3 5 +7 27
6 Maritimo 16 8 3 5 +2 27
7 Guimaraes 16 7 2 7 -6 23
8 Chaves 16 6 4 6 -2 22
9 Boavista 16 6 2 8 -4 20
10 Tondela 16 5 3 8 -7 18
11 Belenenses 15 5 2 8 -8 17
12 Portimonense 15 4 4 7 -4 16
13 Feirense 16 4 2 10 -8 14
14 Moreirense 16 3 5 8 -12 14
15 Aves 16 3 4 9 -10 13
16 Pacos Ferreira 16 3 4 9 -15 13
17 Estoril 15 3 2 10 -19 11
18 Vitoria Setubal 15 2 4 9 -16 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Benfica Sp Lisbon
19′
Gelson Martins 0–1
Half-time 0–1
R. Jiménez 🔁
↦ Pizzi
56′
Ljubomir Fejsa 🟨
64′
69′
🟨 Sebastián Coates
Rafa Silva 🔁
↦ L. Fejsa
73′
78′
🔁 Bruno César
↦ M. Acuña
João Carvalho 🔁
↦ Rúben Dias
81′
84′
🔁 B. Ruiz
↦ Gelson Martins
85′
🟨 Bruno César
89′
🟨 Rodrigo Battaglia
1–1 Jonas
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Benfica

4-3-3
30 Bruno Varela G
34 André Almeida D
33 Jardel D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
66 Rúben Dias D
5 L. Fejsa M
21 Pizzi M
18 E. Salvio F
20 F. Krovinović M
22 F. Cervi F
10 Jonas F
Bench (7)
9 R. Jiménez
27 Rafa Silva
90 João Carvalho
1 M. Svilar
2 L. López
7 A. Samaris
14 H. Seferović

Coach: Rui Vitória

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
22 J. Mathieu D
5 Fábio Coentrão D
4 S. Coates D
92 C. Piccini D
16 R. Battaglia M
14 William Carvalho M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
28 B. Dost F
9 M. Acuña M
77 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
11 Bruno César
20 B. Ruiz
6 André Pinto
13 S. Ristovski
17 Daniel Podence
18 R. Salin
88 S. Doumbia

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Hugo Miguel · 125 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
31,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.