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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Sp Braga

S S S S T

0–2

Full-time

Belenenses

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

68%

32%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

45%

36%

Both score Ø 39%

41%

36%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 3. · Belenenses 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	17	3	2	+32	54
2	Benfica	22	17	2	3	+40	53
3	Sp Braga	22	15	4	3	+19	49
4	Sp Lisbon	22	14	3	5	+19	45
5	Moreirense	22	12	2	8	+0	38
6	Guimaraes	22	10	5	7	+6	35
7	Belenenses	22	7	9	6	+0	30
8	Rio Ave	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Santa Clara	22	8	3	11	-2	27
10	Portimonense	22	8	3	11	-7	27
11	Tondela	22	6	5	11	-7	23
12	Boavista	22	6	5	11	-10	23
13	Maritimo	22	7	2	13	-12	23
14	Nacional	22	6	5	11	-21	23
15	Vitoria Setubal	22	5	7	10	-6	22
16	Aves	22	6	3	13	-14	21
17	Chaves	22	5	4	13	-14	19
18	Feirense	22	2	8	12	-22	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
2	Sp Braga	11	10	1	0	+17	31
3	Porto	11	10	0	1	+22	30
4	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+26	25
5	Moreirense	11	7	2	2	+6	23
6	Guimaraes	11	6	3	2	+6	21
7	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	17
9	Boavista	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Belenenses	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Nacional	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	+0	12
14	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Aves	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Santa Clara	11	3	1	7	-5	10
17	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Feirense	10	1	5	4	-4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+14	28
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
3	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+2	18
4	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+3	17
5	Belenenses	11	3	6	2	-1	15
6	Moreirense	11	5	0	6	-6	15
7	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Maritimo	12	4	1	7	-6	13
10	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	4	6	-6	10
12	Tondela	11	2	3	6	-5	9
13	Aves	10	3	0	7	-10	9
14	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-11	9
15	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-16	9
16	Boavista	11	1	4	6	-10	7
17	Chaves	11	2	1	8	-11	7
18	Feirense	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.