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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Tondela

U T U S T

0–3

Full-time

Porto

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 52%

27%

77%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

45%

Both score Ø 48%

59%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 25

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 11. · Porto 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	17	3	2	+32	54
2	Benfica	22	17	2	3	+40	53
3	Sp Braga	23	15	4	4	+17	49
4	Sp Lisbon	22	14	3	5	+19	45
5	Moreirense	22	12	2	8	+0	38
6	Guimaraes	22	10	5	7	+6	35
7	Belenenses	23	8	9	6	+2	33
8	Rio Ave	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Santa Clara	22	8	3	11	-2	27
10	Portimonense	22	8	3	11	-7	27
11	Tondela	22	6	5	11	-7	23
12	Boavista	22	6	5	11	-10	23
13	Maritimo	22	7	2	13	-12	23
14	Nacional	22	6	5	11	-21	23
15	Vitoria Setubal	22	5	7	10	-6	22
16	Aves	22	6	3	13	-14	21
17	Chaves	22	5	4	13	-14	19
18	Feirense	22	2	8	12	-22	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
2	Sp Braga	12	10	1	1	+15	31
3	Porto	11	10	0	1	+22	30
4	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+26	25
5	Moreirense	11	7	2	2	+6	23
6	Guimaraes	11	6	3	2	+6	21
7	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
8	Rio Ave	12	4	5	3	+1	17
9	Boavista	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Belenenses	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-2	14
12	Nacional	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	Vitoria Setubal	10	3	3	4	+0	12
14	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Aves	12	3	3	6	-4	12
16	Santa Clara	11	3	1	7	-5	10
17	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Feirense	10	1	5	4	-4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+14	28
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+10	24
3	Sp Braga	11	5	3	3	+2	18
4	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
5	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Moreirense	11	5	0	6	-6	15
7	Sp Lisbon	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Maritimo	12	4	1	7	-6	13
10	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	4	6	-6	10
12	Tondela	11	2	3	6	-5	9
13	Aves	10	3	0	7	-10	9
14	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-11	9
15	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-16	9
16	Boavista	11	1	4	6	-10	7
17	Chaves	11	2	1	8	-11	7
18	Feirense	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.