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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Belenenses

U S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Tondela

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 35%

41%

29%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

35%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

41%

65%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 5. · Tondela 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	15	1	2	+27	46
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+21	41
3	Sp Braga	18	12	4	2	+18	40
4	Sp Lisbon	17	11	2	4	+15	35
5	Belenenses	17	7	7	3	+5	28
6	Guimaraes	18	8	4	6	+4	28
7	Moreirense	17	9	1	7	-3	28
8	Portimonense	17	7	3	7	-4	24
9	Santa Clara	17	6	3	8	-1	21
10	Rio Ave	17	5	5	7	-3	20
11	Vitoria Setubal	17	5	4	8	-3	19
12	Nacional	18	5	4	9	-14	19
13	Tondela	17	5	3	9	-4	18
14	Maritimo	17	5	2	10	-10	17
15	Boavista	17	4	4	9	-7	16
16	Feirense	17	2	7	8	-13	13
17	Aves	17	3	3	11	-13	12
18	Chaves	18	3	3	12	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
3	Porto	9	8	0	1	+17	24
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Rio Ave	9	4	3	2	+2	15
9	Belenenses	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Boavista	8	3	1	4	-1	10
13	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Nacional	10	3	1	6	-9	10
15	Aves	9	2	3	4	+0	9
16	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Chaves	9	2	2	5	-4	8
18	Santa Clara	9	2	1	6	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+9	22
3	Sp Braga	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
5	Belenenses	9	3	5	1	+2	14
6	Moreirense	9	4	0	5	-6	12
7	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	8	3	1	4	+0	10
9	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-5	9
11	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-3	7
12	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-7	7
13	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
14	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
15	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Feirense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.