Premier League
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Tottenham
Everton
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | +3.1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +5 | +2.4 | 9 |
| 3 |
Hull
|
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +3 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | +2.4 | 7 |
| 5 |
Brentford
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | +3.5 | 6 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | +0.9 | 6 |
| 7 |
Ipswich
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | -1.4 | 6 |
| 8 |
Newcastle
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | -1.8 | 5 |
| 9 |
Everton
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | -1.2 | 5 |
| 10 |
Leeds
|
3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | -0.4 | 5 |
| 11 |
Nott'm Forest
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0 | +0.7 | 5 |
| 12 |
Brighton
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | +2.0 | 4 |
| 13 |
Man United
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | +3.4 | 4 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0 | -0.1 | 4 |
| 15 |
Bournemouth
|
4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -1.3 | 3 |
| 16 |
Crystal Palace
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | -0.7 | 3 |
| 17 |
Fulham
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -2.0 | 1 |
| 18 |
Tottenham
|
3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | -2.9 | 1 |
| 19 |
Aston Villa
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | -4.2 | 1 |
| 20 |
Coventry
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | -1.1 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
A. Kinsky
G
A. Gray
D
J. P. van Hecke
D
M. van de Ven
D
A. Robertson
D
R. Bentancur
M
S. Tonali
M
Savio
M
M. Fernandes
M
O. Marmoush
M
D. Solanke
F
Coach: Roberto De Zerbi
J. Pickford
G
A. Maitland-Niles
D
J. Tarkowski
D
J. Branthwaite
D
V. Mykolenko
D
J. Garner
M
B. Johnson
M
H. Armstrong
M
K. Dewsbury-Hall
M
T. George
M
T. Barry
F
Coach: Leighton Baines
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Nott'm Forest
Tottenham
Tottenham
Newcastle
Tottenham
Charlton
Brentford
Tottenham
Tottenham
Everton
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.