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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Derby

T S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Fulham

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Championship · 33/31 matches

Win Ø 43%

33%

52%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

55%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 13. · Fulham 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	33	17	12	4	+23	63
2	Leeds	33	17	8	8	+18	59
3	Fulham	31	16	7	8	+12	55
4	Nott'm Forest	33	15	10	8	+12	55
5	Preston	33	15	8	10	+10	53
6	Bristol City	33	15	8	10	+2	53
7	Blackburn	33	14	8	11	+10	50
8	Cardiff	32	12	13	7	+3	49
9	Millwall	33	12	13	8	+2	49
10	Swansea	31	12	12	7	+5	48
11	Brentford	30	13	7	10	+21	46
12	Sheffield Weds	33	12	8	13	+3	44
13	Derby	33	11	11	11	-4	44
14	Birmingham	33	12	8	13	-7	44
15	Reading	33	11	9	13	+4	42
16	QPR	33	12	6	15	-7	42
17	Hull	33	11	8	14	-4	41
18	Middlesbrough	33	8	13	12	-9	37
19	Charlton	33	9	9	15	-6	36
20	Huddersfield	33	9	9	15	-14	36
21	Stoke	33	10	4	19	-12	34
22	Wigan	33	7	10	16	-17	31
23	Luton	33	9	3	21	-27	30
24	Barnsley	33	6	10	17	-18	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	17	10	3	4	+12	33
2	Derby	17	9	6	2	+12	33
3	Fulham	17	10	2	5	+8	32
4	Leeds	16	9	4	3	+10	31
5	Cardiff	15	8	6	1	+10	30
6	Blackburn	17	8	6	3	+8	30
7	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
8	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+12	28
9	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+4	27
10	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+13	25
11	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+5	25
12	QPR	17	7	4	6	+3	25
13	Bristol City	16	7	4	5	+1	25
14	Middlesbrough	17	6	7	4	+0	25
15	Charlton	17	6	5	6	+1	23
16	Sheffield Weds	16	6	5	5	-4	23
17	Birmingham	16	6	4	6	+0	22
18	Hull	17	6	3	8	-1	21
19	Luton	16	6	3	7	-1	21
20	Stoke	17	6	3	8	-1	21
21	Reading	16	6	2	8	+0	20
22	Wigan	16	5	5	6	-5	20
23	Huddersfield	17	5	5	7	-6	20
24	Barnsley	17	4	7	6	-6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	17	10	5	2	+11	35
2	Leeds	17	8	4	5	+8	28
3	Nott'm Forest	17	7	7	3	+8	28
4	Bristol City	17	8	4	5	+1	28
5	Fulham	14	6	5	3	+4	23
6	Swansea	15	5	8	2	+0	23
7	Reading	17	5	7	5	+4	22
8	Birmingham	17	6	4	7	-7	22
9	Brentford	16	6	3	7	+8	21
10	Sheffield Weds	17	6	3	8	+7	21
11	Blackburn	16	6	2	8	+2	20
12	Preston	16	5	5	6	-2	20
13	Hull	16	5	5	6	-3	20
14	Millwall	17	4	8	5	-5	20
15	Cardiff	17	4	7	6	-7	19
16	QPR	16	5	2	9	-10	17
17	Huddersfield	16	4	4	8	-8	16
18	Charlton	16	3	4	9	-7	13
19	Stoke	16	4	1	11	-11	13
20	Middlesbrough	16	2	6	8	-9	12
21	Wigan	17	2	5	10	-12	11
22	Derby	16	2	5	9	-16	11
23	Barnsley	16	2	3	11	-12	9
24	Luton	17	3	0	14	-26	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.