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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Fulham

S U T S S

3–0

Full-time

Derby

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Championship · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 43%

50%

35%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 7. · Derby 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	17	10	6	1	+13	36
2	Leeds	17	10	4	3	+13	34
3	Preston	17	9	4	4	+13	31
4	Swansea	16	8	5	3	+8	29
5	Nott'm Forest	16	8	5	3	+7	29
6	Bristol City	17	7	8	2	+4	29
7	Fulham	16	8	4	4	+8	28
8	Sheffield Weds	17	7	4	6	+6	25
9	Brentford	16	7	3	6	+6	24
10	Millwall	17	6	6	5	-2	24
11	Derby	17	6	6	5	-2	24
12	QPR	17	7	3	7	-5	24
13	Charlton	17	6	5	6	+3	23
14	Hull	17	6	5	6	+2	23
15	Birmingham	17	7	2	8	-5	23
16	Cardiff	16	5	6	5	+0	21
17	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	-3	21
18	Reading	16	5	3	8	-2	18
19	Huddersfield	17	4	5	8	-6	17
20	Wigan	17	4	3	10	-12	15
21	Middlesbrough	17	2	8	7	-8	14
22	Luton	17	4	2	11	-9	14
23	Stoke	17	4	2	11	-11	14
24	Barnsley	17	1	6	10	-18	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Derby	9	5	3	1	+6	18
3	Fulham	9	5	2	2	+6	17
4	Millwall	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Leeds	8	5	2	1	+5	17
6	Cardiff	7	5	1	1	+7	16
7	West Brom	8	4	4	0	+6	16
8	Birmingham	8	5	1	2	+4	16
9	Sheffield Weds	8	4	3	1	+4	15
10	Blackburn	9	4	3	2	+3	15
11	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+4	14
12	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
13	Swansea	8	4	1	3	+3	13
14	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+2	13
15	Wigan	8	4	1	3	-1	13
16	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	12
17	Reading	8	4	0	4	+0	12
18	QPR	9	3	3	3	-1	12
19	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	11
20	Middlesbrough	9	2	4	3	-3	10
21	Huddersfield	9	2	3	4	-2	9
22	Luton	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Stoke	9	2	1	6	-6	7
24	Barnsley	9	1	4	4	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	9	6	2	1	+7	20
2	Leeds	9	5	2	2	+8	17
3	Swansea	8	4	4	0	+5	16
4	Nott'm Forest	9	4	4	1	+3	16
5	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+2	16
6	Hull	8	3	3	2	+3	12
7	Brentford	8	4	0	4	+3	12
8	QPR	8	4	0	4	-4	12
9	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Sheffield Weds	9	3	1	5	+2	10
11	Charlton	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Preston	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Stoke	8	2	1	5	-5	7
15	Millwall	9	1	4	4	-7	7
16	Birmingham	9	2	1	6	-9	7
17	Reading	8	1	3	4	-2	6
18	Blackburn	8	2	0	6	-6	6
19	Luton	9	2	0	7	-7	6
20	Derby	8	1	3	4	-8	6
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-7	5
22	Middlesbrough	8	0	4	4	-5	4
23	Wigan	9	0	2	7	-11	2
24	Barnsley	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.