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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Luton

U T S U U

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 10. · Birmingham 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	7	3	2	+6	24
2	Bournemouth	12	6	5	1	+8	23
3	Bristol City	12	7	2	3	+5	23
4	Watford	12	6	4	2	+5	22
5	Reading	12	7	1	4	+3	22
6	Swansea	11	6	3	2	+7	21
7	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+4	21
8	Middlesbrough	12	4	6	2	+3	18
9	Millwall	12	4	6	2	+2	18
10	Luton	12	5	3	4	-2	18
11	Brentford	11	4	4	3	+5	16
12	Preston	12	5	1	6	+2	16
13	Barnsley	12	4	4	4	+1	16
14	Blackburn	12	4	3	5	+7	15
15	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	+1	14
16	Huddersfield	12	4	2	6	-2	14
17	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-2	14
18	QPR	12	3	5	4	-4	14
19	Rotherham	12	3	3	6	-3	12
20	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-5	12
21	Sheffield Weds	12	3	3	6	-5	12
22	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-11	9
23	Wycombe	12	2	2	8	-13	8
24	Derby	12	1	3	8	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	6	5	1	0	+6	16
2	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Swansea	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	Reading	6	4	0	2	+1	12
5	Barnsley	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Norwich	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Stoke	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Bristol City	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	QPR	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+4	8
12	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Luton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
15	Coventry	6	2	2	2	-4	8
16	Rotherham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
17	Millwall	6	1	4	1	-1	7
18	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
19	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-1	6
21	Cardiff	6	1	2	3	-1	5
22	Wycombe	6	1	2	3	-3	5
23	Preston	6	1	0	5	-5	3
24	Derby	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Bristol City	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Norwich	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Stoke	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Reading	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Luton	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Bournemouth	6	2	3	1	+3	9
9	Cardiff	6	2	3	1	+2	9
10	Brentford	6	2	2	2	+2	8
11	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	+3	7
13	Birmingham	6	1	4	1	+0	7
14	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
16	Watford	6	1	3	2	-1	6
17	Sheffield Weds	6	2	0	4	-4	6
18	Derby	6	1	2	3	-2	5
19	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Rotherham	6	1	2	3	-4	5
21	QPR	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-5	4
23	Wycombe	6	1	0	5	-10	3
24	Coventry	6	0	1	5	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.